| 陈艳红，胡胜德，申倩.基于ARIMA模型的中国粮食供求平衡及预测[J].广东农业科学,2013,40(5):230-233 |
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基于ARIMA模型的中国粮食供求平衡及预测 |
| Balance and forcast on supply and demand of China's grain with ARIMA model |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 粮食 ARIMA 模型 供需 平衡 |
| 英文关键词: food ARIMA model supply and demand balance |
| 基金项目:黑龙江省教育厅新农村建设软科学研究计划项目（1155xnc202） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 运用ARIMA 模型对1949—2011 年我国粮食供需平衡问题进行分析，分别建立了我国粮食生产和粮食需求的时间序列模型，由此模型对2012—2017年间我国粮食供需问题进行预测。预测结果表明，2012—2017年我国国内粮食供给将持续稳定增长，国内粮食需求呈波动增长，国内粮食生产与需求比例在99.80%~101.05%之间波动，预测2012 年的国内粮食生产与需求比例为99.81%。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This paper used ARIMA model to analyze China’s grain supply and demand balance problems from 1949 to 2011,respectively established China’s grain production and demand time series model, and used the models to forecast the China’s grain
demand and supply quantity during the year 2012—2017. The predicted results showed that China’s domestic grain supply would continue sustain grow, the demand would fluctuate grow, and domestic grain production and demand fluctuated between the proportion of 99.80%~101.05%, domestic grain production and demand rate would be 99.81% by 2012. |
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