| 黄梦琳，贾金荣.农业保险与农村信贷合作机制研究——基于协整检验的中介变量模型[J].广东农业科学,2013,40(23（农经版）):133-139 |
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农业保险与农村信贷合作机制研究——基于协整检验的中介变量模型 |
| Research on the interaction between agricultural insurance and rural credit -based on mediator model with cointegration |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 农业保险 农村信贷 农业经济 |
| 英文关键词: agricultural insurance rural credit agricultural economy |
| 基金项目:/ |
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| 摘要点击次数: 741 |
| 全文下载次数: 147 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 我国农村金融体系长期存在的贷款难问题，抑制了农户发展农业的活力，并限制了农业经济水平的提高，农村金融滞后问题越来越突出。采用中介变量模型、协整和格兰杰因果检验，实证分析得出农业保险和农业贷款具有长期协整关系，格兰杰因果检验显示当滞后2期及以上，农业保险是农业贷款的格兰杰原因，即农业保险具有扩大农业信贷作用。中介变量模型估计结果显示农业贷款中介效应显著，农业保险通过农业贷款部分中介效应促进农业经济增长。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The existing problem of rural credit in rural financial system has restrained improving agriculture and agricultural economy，that made rural finance become more and more lagging. To resolve the challenge in agricultural producing field, this paper puts forward the breakthrough that made the agricultural insurance as the condition when farmers wanted to get rural credit. The paper based on mediator model with cointegration and Granger Causality Test,reached a conclusion that there was long-term cointegration relation between agricultural insurance and rural credit. The results of Granger Causality Test have proved that agricultural insurance was the reason to rural credit when the time lagged 2 years or more, so agricultural insurance had the function of expanding rural credit. The estimated outputs indicated that mediator effect of rural credit was marked, and agricultural insurance promoted agricultural economy through the part mediator effect. |
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