| 江平1，康晓慧2.用逐步回归分析模型预测水稻稻瘟病流行趋势[J].广东农业科学,2014,41(12):72-74 |
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用逐步回归分析模型预测水稻稻瘟病流行趋势 |
| Epidemic trend prediction of rice blast bystepwise regression analysis model |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 水稻稻瘟病 逐步回归分析模型 流行趋势预报 |
| 英文关键词: rice blast stepwise regression analysis model forecasting of epidemic trend |
| 基金项目:国家“十二五”科技支撑计划项目(2011BAD16B
05） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1256 |
| 全文下载次数: 527 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 水稻稻瘟病是我国水稻栽培中的重要病害，对该病害防治的关键是要做好预测工作。应用逐步回归分
析，对影响水稻稻瘟病流行趋势的多种预报因子进行优选，择出优势因子并组建水稻稻瘟病流行趋势的逐步回归分
析模型。验证结果表明院历史符合率达97.4%，3 年预测结果的平均符合率也达到85.3%，符合率较高，为该病害的预
测及其防治提供了依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Rice blast can cause the yield loss of rice in a large scale in China, the key to control it is forecasting this
disease. By means of stepwise regression analysis, the authors selectead the optimum factors out of the weather factors
influencing the epidemic trend of the rice blast. Then a stepwise regression analysis model to forecast the epidemic trend of
rice blast was set up. Result showed that the accurate rate was 97.4%, and the accuracy of testing-forecast was also 85.3%.
The accurate rate much high, the model can provide a foundation to forecast and control rice blast. |
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