| 魏洪斌，吴克宁，赵华甫，辛亮亮.未来10年我国耕地数量质量变化对区域粮食产能影响研究[J].广东农业科学,2014,41(19):213-219 |
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未来10年我国耕地数量质量变化对区域粮食产能影响研究 |
| Research on the impact of cultivated land quantity and quality change on grain productivity of China in the next 10 years |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 耕地变化 粮食产能 利用等别 中国耕地 |
| 英文关键词: changes of cultivated land grain productivity cultivated land utilization grade cultivated land of China |
| 基金项目:国土资源部公益性行业科研专项（201011006-2） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 耕地资源变化对粮食产量具有直接影响，分析预测粮食产能的变化对耕地保护与粮食安全的政策制定具有指导意义。基于耕地数量质量的变化，通过定量分析与对比分析，预测未来10 年我国耕地资源变化对区域粮食产能的影响。结果表明，我国各省域耕地质量存在差异，耕地面积仍将呈进一步减少趋势，集中分布于耕地质量等别与产能水平较高的东部经济发达地区，将耕地统计面积按照国家最高等别1 等与最低等别15 等折算为标准面积
后，耕地减少与增加的比例为0.25：1，标准粮产量减少与增加的比例为3.07：1，与占用低等别耕地相比，占用高等别耕地对粮食产能损失影响更大，因此各省应加大实施耕地占补平衡力度，避免占用优质耕地。揭示全国及各省域耕地的变化趋势及对粮食产能的影响，有助于确定不同区域耕地资源变化格局与态势及预测粮食产能水平。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Analysis and prediction of the change of grain productivity has guiding significance to make cultivated land
protection and food security of policies. This is because the changes of cultivated land resource directly affects the grain yield. This paper predicted the impact of cultivated land change on regional grain productive capacity of China in the next 10 years by quantitative analysis and comparative analysis based on changes in quantity and quality of cropland. Results shows that differences do exist among the cultivated land gradation of each province, and the cultivated land area shows a tendency for further decreasing which mainly distributes in the economically developed eastern China with high-level cultivated land gradation and grain productive capacity; The statistics of cultivated land area were converted to standard area according to 1 and 15 grades by the conversion coefficient, the proportion between decreased and increased cultivated land area is 0.25：1 and the proportion between decreased and increased standard food yield is 3.07：1. The nonagricultural construction on higher quality cultivated land causes more loss of grain production, so the high quality cultivated land shouldn’t be occupied by construction and more attention should be paid to the requisition -compensation balance of cultivated land. The paper reveals the provincial and the national trends of cultivated land and its impact on grain production capacity, helps to identify the changes in pattern and situation of cultivated land resources in different areas and forecast the level of grain production. |
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