| 江慧珍，朱红根，周曙东，等.气候变化对我国农业产值影响的经济分析[J].广东农业科学,2015,42(13):187-192 |
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气候变化对我国农业产值影响的经济分析 |
| Economic impact of climate change on grossoutput value of agriculture in China |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 农业总产值 气候变化 生产函数 面板数据模型 |
| 英文关键词: gross output value of agriculture climate change production function panel data model |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1191 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| ：利用1980—2012 年全国省级面板数据，通过构建“气候－经济”新模型，定量分析了气候变化对中
国农业总产值的影响。研究表明：温度升高和降水量增加均会对中国农业总产值产生积极影响。温度每上升1℃，
农业总产值增加1.25 亿元；降水量每增加100 mm，农业总产值增加2.08 亿元。从气候因子对农业总产值的贡
献率来看，温度对农业总产值增长的绝对贡献率为0.424%，而降水量对农业总产值增长的绝对贡献率则达到了
0.721%。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| By using the provincial panel data from 1980 to 2012 in China，through the construction of“ new model
climate economy”，this paper quantitatively analyzed the effects of climate change on gross output value of agriculture
in China. Results showed that the rise in both temperature and precipitation had positive impacts on gross output
value of agriculture in China. If temperature increased by 1℃，gross output value of agriculture increased 125 million
Yuan，If precipitation increased by 100 mm，gross output value of agriculture increased by 208 million Yuan. From
the point of contribution rate of climatic factors to gross output value of agriculture，the absolute contribution rate
of temperature on growth of gross output value of agriculture was 0.424%，while the absolute contribution rate of
precipitation reached 0.721%. |
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