| 马伟龙，任 平，曾雨晴，陶晓明.基于ESDA 和GIS 的四川省县域耕地
变化时空关联性分析[J].广东农业科学,2015,42(16):155-154 |
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基于ESDA 和GIS 的四川省县域耕地
变化时空关联性分析 |
| Spatial-temporal correlation analysis of changerate of county farmland in Sichuan provincebased on ESDA and GIS |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 空间关联性 GIS ESDA 时空变化 四川省 |
| 英文关键词: spatial correlation GIS ESDA spatial-temporal evolution Sichuan province |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金（41301196） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于ESDA 全局和局部空间自相关分析，采用GeoDa 和ArcGIS 软件分析了四川省2001—2007
年和2007—2013 年两个时期的耕地变化率及其空间关联性。结果表明：（1）2001—2013 年，四川省耕地面积
呈先急剧减少后略有增加的总体变化趋势，其中，2001—2007 年共减少耕地面积37.6375 万hm2，年均减少耕
地6.2729 万hm2；2007—2013 年增加耕地面积1.8817 万hm2，年均增加0.3136 万hm2；（2）2001—2007 年和
2007—2013 年两个时期全局Moran’s I 分别为0.4219 和0.5428，表明耕地变化率空间自相关特性明显，耕地变
化率相似的县域在空间上集聚分布，且有进一步集聚的趋势；（3）局域空间自相关集聚类型中，两个时期正相
关的类型都占主体部分，分别占75.41% 和73.77%，其中，显著性强烈的县域分别占26.81% 和16.30%，且存
在由西向东转移趋势；（4）两个时期耕地变化率空间集聚虽然不完全相同，但存在共性，即以攀西城市群为主
的川西南、以成都平原城市群和川东北城市群为主的川东大部分县域耕地变化率较高，川西北城市群部分县
域耕地变化率较低。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis
（ESDA），with the support of ArcGIS and GeoDa software，this study analyzed the change rate of farmland in the
periods of 2001-2007 and 2007-2013 in Sichuan province. The spatial correlation of change rate of farmland in
the two periods was studied. The results showed that：（1）From 2001 to 2013，the farmland in Sichuan province
sharply decreased at the beginning，and then slightly increased. From 2001 to 2007， the area of farmland decreased
37.6375×104 hm2，with an average annual of 6.2729×104 hm2；From 2007 to 2013， the area of farmland increased
1.8817×104 hm2，with an average annual of 0.3136×104 hm2.（2）The global Moran’s I were 0.4219 and 0.5428，
which indicated that there was significant positive spatial autocorrelation of change rate of farmland in the periods
of 2001-2007 and 2007-2013 in Sichuan province. The counties which had similar change rate of farmland were
collectively distributed in space，and it was increasingly obvious with time going on.（3）From local spatial autocor
relation cluster type，the majority of the two periods accounted for 75.41% and 73.77%，whereby，counties，which
presented distinct relativity，accounted for 26.81% and 16.30%， and this kind of trend would shift from west to
east；（4）Although the spatial cluster of the change rate of farmland in the two periods was different，there was
common between them. The change rates of farmland in the Panxi urban agglomeration of southwest Sichuan，
Chengdu Plains urban agglomeration and Northeast
Sichuan urban agglomeration which based in eastern
Sichuan were higher，the change rate of farmland in
the northwest Sichuan urban agglomeration of Sichuan
province was lower. |
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