| 黄宁阳1，李 治2.经济因素对中国农村劳动力外出规模的影响研究
——基于主成分分析的研究方法[J].广东农业科学,2015,42(18):174-178 |
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经济因素对中国农村劳动力外出规模的影响研究
——基于主成分分析的研究方法 |
| Effects of economic factors on migrant scale of rural labors—Based on the method of principal component analysis |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 农村劳动力 外出规模 经济因素 主成分分析 |
| 英文关键词: rural labor force migrant scale economic factors principal component analysis |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金（11BJL041）；湖北省
软科学研究计划项目（2013BDF026） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 我国农村劳动力外出规模逐年增加，城乡经济差别是影响农村劳动力外出规模的主要动因。通过
经济因素分析，分别提出粮食产量、农用机械、工业、建筑业、第三产业、进出口额与城市化这些经济因素对
农村劳动力外出规模均有影响的假设，利用统计年鉴的数据和主成份分析方法，克服这些经济指标之间的共
线性，部分证实了农村劳动力外出规模与这些经济变量的相关性，多元回归模型与现实拟合较好。研究结果表
明，3 次三产业发展对农村劳动力的转移都具有推动作用，但产业内部对农村劳动力的吸纳有差别。进出口贸
易增加与城市化水平提高对农村劳动力的转移也都具有较大的推动作用。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| It is significant for both urban economy and rural economy when rural labors migrate to cities. In this
paper，by economic theory analysis，the authors brought forward the hypothesis，positive correlativity between the
economic variables and rural labors. These economic variables included grain yield，farm-oriented mechanical industry，
building industry，tertiary industry，value of export and import and the rate of urbanizing. With the method of principle
component analysis，it could overcome the together linear among these economics variables. It was demonstrated that
rural labor forces had some relevance to these economic variables by the regression model，it matched very well with the
real data. The research illustrated that all the industrial development，including first，secondary and tertiary industry
development，contributed to the migrant labor scale. The role played by inner industry was different. Development trade
of export and import and raising urbanization level also had push effects on migrant of rural labors. |
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