| 杜雪华，董佳宇.借贷牧户偿债能力分析[J].广东农业科学,2019,46(5):158-164 |
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借贷牧户偿债能力分析 |
| Analysis on the Debt-paying Ability of Borrowing Herdsmen |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2019.05.022 |
| 中文关键词: 借贷牧户 锡林郭勒盟 现金流函数 收益函数 偿债能力 |
| 英文关键词: borrowing herdsmen Xilingol League cash flow function income function solvency |
| 基金项目:内蒙古自治区自然科学基金（2018MS07008）；内蒙古自治区高等学校科学研究项目（NJSY18073） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 【目的】国家对牧区金融发展的支持，以及牧户对资金周转的需求使得牧区贷款较为普遍。贷款
意味着牧户需要有还本付息的能力，因此，评价牧户的偿债能力，能为国家改善牧区发展提供一定的依据。【方法】
运用文献综述法和描述性统计法对当前牧户借贷情况以及锡林郭勒盟整体的生产生活情况进行理论和现状分析。
基于实地调研数据，通过演绎推理牧户的现金流和收益函数来评价牧户的偿债能力。【结果】牧区的还本能力
较低，其付息能力相对较高。现金流入与流出的不对等，降低了牧户的偿债能力。2015—2017 年实际牲畜出栏
数量均小于收支均衡时的出栏量，牧户产生的利润为零，牧户处于亏损状态，牧户的偿债能力比较弱。【结论】
对养畜规模或出栏规模较大的牧户可以适度增加借贷额度，反之，应减少借贷额度；金融机构放贷期限应该灵
活变动；建议政府对牧户有外部的资金支持，适时补贴，缓解牧户的借贷压力，增强其偿债能力。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| 【Objective】The support of the state for the financial development of pastoral areas and the demand of
pastoral households for capital turnover making the loan of pastoral areas more common. Loans mean that herdsmen need
to be able to repay capital and interest. Therefore, the evaluation of herdsmens’ ability to repay their debts can provide
some basis for improving the development of pastoral areas by the state. 【Method】By using literature review method
and descriptive statistical method, this paper analyzed the current situation of herdsmens’loan and production and life in
Xilingol League. Based on the field survey data, the debt-paying ability of herdsman households was evaluated by deductive
reasoning of the herdsman's cash flow and income function. 【Result】The herdsmen of pastoral areas have low repayment
ability, and relatively high interest paying ability. The unequal cash inflows and outflows reduced the solvency of herdsmen.
From 2015 to 2017, the actual number of livestock was less than that when the balance of income and expenditure was
balanced. The profit generated by herdsmen was zero, the herdsmen were in a loss state, and the herdsmens’ ability to pay
debts was weak. 【Conclusion】 For the herdsmen with large livestock breeding scale or market scale, the loan quota can be
increased moderately, on the contrary, loan quota should be reduced. The loan period of the financial institutions should be
changed flexibly. It is suggested that the government should provide external financial support to herdsmen and subsidize in
due course to alleviate the borrowing pressure of herdsmens and enhance their debt-paying ability. |
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