| 刘芳青，祁春节.稻谷最低收购价政策对“三量齐增”现象影响的实证研究[J].广东农业科学,2019,46(6):165-172 |
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稻谷最低收购价政策对“三量齐增”现象影响的实证研究 |
| An Empirical Study on the Effect of Policy of Rice Minimum Purchase Price on the Phenomenon of “the Number of Production,Imports, and Stocks Increased Simultaneously” |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2019.06.022 |
| 中文关键词: 最低收购价政策 产量 进口量 库存量 |
| 英文关键词: minimum purchase price policy production imports stock |
| 基金项目:国家现代农业（柑橘）产业技术体系（MATS）专项（CARS-26-08B）；国家社会科学基金（16BJY136） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 3520 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 【目的】最低收购价政策是我国促进农业发展的一项重要政策，通过最低收购价政策对稻谷“三
量齐增”现象的影响实证研究，为我国农业供给侧结构性改革提供参考。【方法】以 2002—2016 年数据为样本，
采用联立方程组的方法研究最低收购价政策对稻谷产量、进口量和库存量方面的影响。【结果】最低收购价格
通过影响我国稻谷播种面积促使我国稻谷产量增加，产量年均增长约 6%；最低收购价格政策显著促进了我国
国内稻米价格的提高，年均提高约 36.3%，进而显著地促进我国稻谷进口量增加；最低收购价格政策通过影响
供需状况促使我国稻谷库存量增加。【结论】我国正处于调整稻谷最低收购价政策的关键期，建议灵活调整最
低收购价格，把握好农业支持政策的平衡，在提高国际竞争力上下更大功夫。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| 【Objective】The minimum purchase price policy is an important policy to promote the development
of agriculture in China. Through the empirical research on the influence of the minimum purchase price policy on the
phenomenon of "the number of production, imports, and stocks increased simultaneously" of rice, this paper provides
a reference for the supply side structural reform of agriculture in China.【Method】Taking the data from 2002 to 2016
as the sample, the effects of the minimum purchase price policy on rice production, imports and stocks were studied by
simultaneous equations.【Result】The results show that the minimum purchase price promoted the yield increase by
affecting the area planted with rice in China and the annual increase of rice production is about 6%. The minimum purchase
price policy significantly promoted the increase of domestic rice prices in China with an average annual increase of about
36.3%, and significantly promoted the increase of rice imports in China. The policy of minimum purchase price promoted the
increase of rice stock in China by affecting the supply and demand.【Conclusion】China is in the critical period of adjusting
the policy of minimum purchase price of rice. It is suggested that the minimum purchase price should be adjusted flexibly,the balance of agricultural support policies should be kept well, and more efforts should be made to improve the international
competitiveness. |
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