| 王俊能，许振成，杨剑.基于EMD 的中国生猪生产波动分析[J].广东农业科学,2012,39(4):153-155 |
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基于EMD 的中国生猪生产波动分析 |
| Chinese hog cycle: in the perspective of EMD analysis |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 生猪生产 波动周期 经验模态分解 快速傅立叶变换 |
| 英文关键词: pork production fluctuation period EMD FFT |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 采用EMD 和FFT 方法对中国的生猪产量波动周期进行分析，结果表明：(1) 我国生猪产量总体发展特征是在波动中不断上升，但年增长率呈缓慢下降趋势；(2)就产量而言，我国生猪波动周期以3.33 年短周期为主(贡献率高达53.7%)，此外还存在一个较为清晰的5年中周期以及更长周期的波动尺度；(3) 近几年生猪产量波动越来越大，波动周期性也越加模糊。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In this paper, Chinese hog cycle was analyzed based on EMD and FFT. The results indicated that Chinese pork production was increased with fluctuation, and its growth rate was decreased gently. EMD analysis confirms that the fluctuations of pork production had 3.33-year, 5-year and long-year time scales. And fluctuations of the 3.33-year was the most prominent (accumulated to
53.7%). Furthermore, pork production was fluctuating seriously in the last few years, and periodicity also became uncertain. |
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