| 白裕兵，浦华，石自忠.基于ARCH类模型的我国饲料价格波动分析[J].广东农业科学,2013,40(17):216-219 |
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基于ARCH类模型的我国饲料价格波动分析 |
| Empirical analysis on feed price fluctuation based on ARCH-type model in China |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 饲料 价格波动 ARCH 类模型 |
| 英文关键词: feed price fluctuation ARCH-type model |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 利用ARCH类模型对1995年以来我国育肥猪配合饲料、肉鸡配合饲料和蛋鸡配合饲料等月度价格的波动性、非对称性进行分析，结果表明：（1）3 类饲料的价格均具有显著的异方差效应，其价格波动有显著的集簇性，在市场上不具有高风险高收益的特征；（2)饲料价格波动具有非对称性,其价格上涨信息所引发的波动比价格下降信息引发的波动更大。为平抑饲料价格波动影响，建议加强饲料市场监测预警，出台饲料价格补贴政策，积极推行畜禽产业一体化。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This paper analyzes the price fluctuation of three compound feeds in China with ARCH-type model援The monthly data is from 1995 to 2012. The result shows that the price of feeds has the significant conditional heteroscedasticity. And its fluctuation takes on the significant volatility clustering. The feeds market do not has the characteristics of high-risk and high-reward. The price change of feed market caused by the information of price up fluctuates more sharply than the change caused by the price down, which means the price fluctuations have significant asymmetry. According to the above analysis, it was proposed that the research on feed price subsidy policy should be enhanced and the integration of livestock industry chain should be encouraged to stabilize the feed price. |
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