| 王俊智，张永福.干旱绿洲区土地利用生态风险分析及预测
——以沙雅县为例[J].广东农业科学,2015,42(22):125-130 |
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干旱绿洲区土地利用生态风险分析及预测
——以沙雅县为例 |
| Analysis and prediction on ecological riskof land use in arid oasis areas—A case study of Shaya County |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 土地利用 遥感影像 空间马尔科夫模型 生态风险 |
| 英文关键词: land use remote sensing image Spatial－Markov model ecological risk |
| 基金项目:新疆沙雅县土地利用总体规划修编项目 |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1193 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| ：利用沙雅县2008、2013 年的遥感影像数据，并通过空间马尔科夫模型预测2020 年土地利用结
构变化规律，讨论由土地利用结构变化引发的生态风险。通过对生态风险指数进行分类，将整个研究区域生
态风险划分为低风险区、较低风险区、中等风险区、较高风险区和高风险区5 类。 其次对沙雅县生态风险指
数进行采样，通过半变异函数分析和空间插值，从而揭示沙雅县土地利用生态风险的时空差异。结果发现：
2008—2013 年间沙雅县林地面积、其他用地面积有所减少，草地面积和水域面积几乎未发生变化。通过预
测分析得到2020 年沙雅县各土地要素面积较2013 年发生变化，林地与其他用地面积明显减少，水域和草地
面积几乎为发生改变；耕地面积和建设用地面积都在增加；在整个研究期内，沙雅县生态系统风险值出现变
化。总体来说，沙雅县生态环境状况在2008—2013 年生态指数由0.018 到0.021 趋于恶化状态，2013—2020
年生态指数由0.021 到0.011 恶化状态有所缓解。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on Spatial－markov model and remote sensing image data of Shaya county from 2008 to 2013，this
paper predicted the variation law of land use structure in 2020，and discussed the resulting ecological risk. According
to ecological risk index，the whole study areas were divided into five different regions，including lower risk region，low
risk region，medium risk region，high risk region and higher risk region. Based on samples of ecological risk index，by
semi－variogram analysis and spacialinterpolation，the spacial and temporal differences of ecological risk of land use in
Shaya county were revealed. The results showed that forestland area and other land area decreased from 2008 to 2013，
whereas grassland area and water area were almost the same. Through analysis and prediction，the land area in 2020
would change compared with 2013，forestland area and other land area would reduce obviously，and grassland area and
water area would be almost the same，while arable land and construcion land area would increase. The ecosystem risk
value of Shaya changed during the whole study period. As a whole，the ecological environment situation in Shaya county
deteriorated from 2008 to 2013 and the ecological risk index changed from 0.018 to 0.021，yet the situation would relieve
from 2013 to 2020 and the ecological risk index changed from 0.021 to 0.011. |
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