| 张祎玮1，张建新 2.未来气温和降水变化对山西冬小麦产量的影响[J].广东农业科学,2020,47(9):23-30 |
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未来气温和降水变化对山西冬小麦产量的影响 |
| Study on the Impact of Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes on Yields of Winter Wheat in Shanxi Province |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2020.09.003 |
| 中文关键词: 气候变化 冬小麦 机理模型 旱作 |
| 英文关键词: climate change winter wheat mechanism model dry farming |
| 基金项目:山西省重点研发计划（201903D321006）；山西气象青年基金（SXKQNNY20185139） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 【目的】冬小麦是山西省重要的粮食作物，气候变化对冬小麦产量影响显著。利用模型模拟评估气候变化对山西省冬小麦产量的影响，为山西省冬小麦种植规划提供重要科学依据。【方法】利用山西省 2017—2018 年气象资料和 2018 年县级冬小麦产量数据，采用 DNDC 区域模拟方法，对山西省冬小麦种植区单产进行模拟和验证；模拟未来 8 种气候变化情景（温度上升 1、2℃，降水减少 20%、10% 以及温度和降水耦合）对冬小麦产量产生的影响。【结果】DNDC 模型可以较好模拟出山西省冬小麦产量整体水平（4 335.6 kg/hm2），总体平均误差为 4.63%，空间上的模拟误差主要由于山西省地形和气候差异导致。【结论】未来气候变化背景下，不同程度的增温对产量的影响不一，在温度平均升高 1℃情况下，山西省冬小麦单产下降 4.60%，而气温上升 2℃情景下，单产增加 16.44%；降水减少 10% 和 20% 情景下，产量均降低，说明水分依然是制约冬小麦产量的重要因子；但在增温和降水减少的耦合作用下产量增加 7.41%~15.84%。未来还需根据山西省种植特点，从轮作角度评估气候变化对农业的影响。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| 【Objective】Winter wheat is an important grain crop in Shanxi Province, and climate change has a significant impact on winter wheat yield. Model simulations are used to evaluate the impacts of climate changes on winter wheat yields in Shanxi Province, so as to provide an important scientific basis for winter wheat planting planning in Shanxi Province.【Method】The meteorological data of 2017-2018 and the winter wheat yield data at county level of 2018 in Shanxi Province were used. And DNDC model was applied to simulate and verify the winter wheat yields in Shanxi Province. Eight scenarios（including temperature increasing 1 or 2℃ , precipitation decreasing 20% or 10% and the coupling variation of temperature and precipitation）were further simulated to evaluate the possible influence of future climate changes on winter wheat yields.【Result】DNDC model showed good performance in simulating the overall level （4 335.6 kg/hm2） of winter wheat yield in Shanxi Province, with the average error of 4.63%, and the error was mainly attributed to terrain and climate differences. 【Conclusion】Under the 8 climate change scenarios, different temperature increases had different impacts on yields. Under the scenario of an average temperature increase of 1℃ , the yield of winter wheat in Shanxi Province decreased by 4.60%, while under the scenario of temperature increase of 2℃ , the yield increased by 16.44%; 10% and 20% decrease of precipitation had negative impacts on yields, indicating that water was still an important factor restricting the yields of winter wheat; while the coupling effect of temperature increase and precipitation decrease had positive effect on the yields, with the increase by 7.41%-15.84%. In the future, it is necessary to evaluate the impacts of climate changes on agriculture from the perspective of crop rotation. |
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