| 张柳红,张羽,柳晔,等.2024年广东省中晚熟荔枝成花差异气候成因分析[J].广东农业科学,2025,(3-4):- |
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2024年广东省中晚熟荔枝成花差异气候成因分析 |
| Analysis on the Climatic Causes of the Differences in Floral Initiation of Mid-late Maturing Litchi in Guangdong Province in 2024 |
| 投稿时间：2024-12-25 修订日期：2025-02-11 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 荔枝 花芽分化 中晚熟 气温 光照 水分 广东 |
| 英文关键词: litchi floral differentiation mid-late maturing temperature sunshine precipitation Guangdong |
| 基金项目:广东省基础与应用基础研究基金气象联合基金（2024A1515510034）；广东省气象局科技项目（GRMC2023M15）；广东省气候中心科研项目（QH202413） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 【目的】荔枝成花与否是荔枝产量高低的关键环节,有花不一定有果,无花肯定无果。2024年广东省荔枝产区中晚熟荔枝出现花质差或少花甚至无花的现象,导致荔枝产量出现超级小年。探明天气气候条件的变化对中晚熟荔枝成花的影响和制约作用,可为荔枝生产精准把握时机、有效规避风险提供科学依据,推动荔枝产业在复杂多变的气候环境下实现可持续发展。【方法】利用2023年11月至2024年2月广东省6个国家气象站逐日观测资料和荔枝成花率数据,从气温、光照、水分3个方面分析广东省荔枝产区粤西廉江和高州、珠三角增城和东莞、粤东惠来和饶平共计6个典型区域中晚熟荔枝花芽分化期天气气候条件,对比分析不同典型区域荔枝2024年成花率差别与天气气候条件的关系。【结果】(1)广东省中晚熟荔枝成花关键期,荔枝产区出现气温偏高且变率大、低温迟且间隔长、累积热量过高、日照偏少且寡照突出、成花后期降水不足等情况,导致荔枝无花少花。(2)6个典型区域成花率不同,其中水分条件总体差别不大,但温度和光照条件差别明显,说明温光条件对2024年广东省中晚熟荔枝无花少花的制约大于水分条件。(3)饶平‘桂味’、‘糯米糍’等传统优质中晚熟荔枝成花率超7成,其余区域不足2成,与其天气气候条件较好有关,具体指标为日平均气温低于19.0℃天数最多达92 d,日平均气温低于14.0℃天数次多为30 d,日最高气温≥25.0℃天数最少仅29 d,极端低温3.0?4.0℃且持续不超过3 d,高于22.0℃最低日气温的累积热量最少仅22.2℃,日照时数较近五年同期偏多2成以上且寡照天气最少仅13 d,12月下旬至次年1月下旬降水量少于15 mm、2月上旬和中旬降水量超过15 mm。未来开展荔枝产量与天气气候条件的关系研究、荔枝果园生产管理等工作可考虑上述因素。(4)同等气候条件下,东莞、惠来等地‘桂味’、‘糯米糍’等需冷量高的品种成花率不足2成,而观音绿、岭丰糯等需冷量较低品种可达5成以上。【结论】温光条件是制约广东省中晚熟荔枝花芽分化的主导气候因子,全球气候变暖大背景下,暖冬、持续阴雨寡照等灾害不容忽视,建议荔农适时调整种植品种,助力荔枝产业持续、高质量发展。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| 【Objective】Whether the floral initiation of litchi occurs or not is a key factor in determining the yield of litchi. The presence of flowers does not necessarily guarantee fruits, but without flowers, there will definitely be no fruits. In 2024, in the litchi-producing areas of Guangdong Province, phenomena such as poor flower quality, few flowers or even no flowers occurred in mid-late-maturing litchi, resulting in an extremely low-yield year for litchi. Investigating the influence and constraint of weather and climate condition variations on the floral initiation of mid-late maturing litchi can furnish a scientific foundation for accurately seizing the opportune moments and effectively circumventing risks in litchi production, thereby facilitating the sustainable progression of the litchi industry within the context of a complex and volatile climatic environment.【Method】The daily observation data from six national meteorological stations in Guangdong Province from November 2023 to February 2024 and the data on the floral differentiation rate of litchi were used in this study. The weather and climate conditions during the flower differentiation period of mid-late-maturing litchi in six typical regions in the litchi-producing areas of Guangdong Province, namely Lianjiang and Gaozhou in western Guangdong, Zengcheng and Dongguan in the Pearl River Delta, together with Huilai and Raoping in eastern Guangdong, were analyzed from three aspects: temperature, sunlight, and moisture. The relationship between the differences in the floral differentiation rate of litchi in different typical regions in 2024 and the weather and climate conditions was compared and analyzed. 【Result】(1) During the critical period for the floral differentiation of mid-late-maturing litchi in the litchi-producing areas of Guangdong Province, there were situations such as relatively high temperatures with large variability, late occurrence of low temperatures and long intervals between them, excessive accumulated heat, relatively little sunlight with prominent periods of low light intensity, and insufficient precipitation in the later stage of floral differentiation, which led to few or no flowers on litchi. (2) The floral differentiation rates in the six typical regions were different. Among them, there was generally little difference in moisture conditions, but significant differences in temperature and sunlight conditions, indicating that temperature and sunlight conditions had a greater restrictive effect on the few or no flowers of mid-late-maturing litchi in Guangdong Province in 2024 than moisture conditions. (3)The traditional high-quality mid-late-maturing litchi varieties such as “Guiwei” and “Nuomici” in Raoping had a floral differentiation rate of over 70%, while in the other regions it was less than 20%. This was related to the relatively good weather and climate conditions in Raoping. The specific indicators were as follows: the maximum number of days with the average daily temperature below 19.0 °C was 92 days, the second highest number of days with the average daily temperature below 14.0 °C was 30 days, the minimum number of days with the maximum daily temperature ≥ 25.0 °C was only 29 days, the extreme low temperature was 3.0~4.0 °C and lasted for no more than 3 days, the amount of heat accumulation at hot day with the minimum daily temperature ≥22°C was only 22.2 °C, the sunshine hours were more than 20% higher than those in the same period of the past five years and the minimum number of days with a daily cumulativesunshine hours ≤ 2 h was only 13 days, and the precipitation from late December 2023 to late January 2024 was less than 15 mm while the precipitation in early and mid-February 2024 exceeded 15 mm. (4)Under the same climate conditions, the floral differentiation rate of varieties with high chilling requirements such as “Guiwei” and “Nuomici” in Dongguan and Huilai was less than 20%, while that of varieties with lower chilling requirements such as “Guanyinlü” and “Lingfengnuo” reached more than 50%.【Conclusion】Temperature and sunlight conditions are the dominant climatic factors that restrict the floral differentiation of mid-late-maturing litchi in Guangdong Province. Against the backdrop of global warming, disasters such as warm winters, continuous overcast and rainy weather with insufficient sunlight cannot be ignored. It is recommended that litchi farmers seek advantages and avoid disadvantages and adjust the planted varieties in a timely manner, which will contribute to the sustainable and high-quality development of the litchi industry. |
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