| 任景全，王连喜，李琪，吴荣军，吴东丽.气候变化背景下我国农业模型模拟研究进展[J].广东农业科学,2012,39(4):136-139 |
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气候变化背景下我国农业模型模拟研究进展 |
| Progress of model simulation on Chinese agriculture under climate change scenarios |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 作物模型 气候情景 气候模式 脆弱性 |
| 英文关键词: crops model climate change scenarios climate model vulnerability |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1798 |
| 全文下载次数: 850 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 概述了我国在未来气候变化下主要粮食作物（水稻，小麦，玉米）的模型模拟研究的概况，主要包括粮食产量和敏感性、脆弱性研究。作物模型与气候模式相结合的模型模拟研究是目前的主流方法。虽然我国的模型模拟研究取得了一定的进步，但当前研究所用的作物模型大多是国外的模型，国内的模型模拟水平还有待提高。针对目前研究中存在的问题，认为在气候模式本身、温室气体排放情景、应用技术的不确定性、作物生长模拟模型和农业气候变化的脆弱性等方面应进行重点研究，为准确评价气候变化对我国农业生产的可持续发展提供理论依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The paper summarized the overview of main food crops (rice,wheat,maize) model simulations under the climate change in the future,including food production and sensitivity,vulnerability research.The combination of crop model and climate model is the main method.Although model simulations have made some progress,the current crop model use are most from abroad,the simulated level of domestic model needs to be improved.Aiming at the problems in the present study,the priority research field should be focused on the climate models,greenhouse gas emission scenarios,the uncertainty of application technology,crop growth simulation models and the
vulnerability of agriculture to climate change,providing a theory basis for the accurate evaluation of climate change on the sustainable development of China's agricultural production. |
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