| 袁 锋，于 冷，赵子健.气候变化对农作物生产力与种植结构的影响
——基于DNDC-CGE 模型的仿真研究[J].广东农业科学,2016,43(12):159-167 |
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气候变化对农作物生产力与种植结构的影响
——基于DNDC-CGE 模型的仿真研究 |
| Influence of climate change on the agriculturalproductivity and planting structure—Simulation study based on DNDC-CGE model |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2016.12.026 |
| 中文关键词: 种植结构 气候变化 CO2 肥效作用 DNDC-CGE 模型 |
| 英文关键词: planting structure climate change CO2 fertilization effect DNDC—CGE model |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目（71333010）；国家自然科学基金（71573173）；国家社会科学基金重点项
目（15AZD010）；上海交通大学博士后研究基金（14X100030025） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 农业作为“靠天吃饭”的行业，气候变化势必对农作物的生产力与种植结构产生深刻影响。结
合增温、降水减少和二氧化碳浓度增加进行情景设定，并通过所构建的中国地区DNDC－CGE 模型开展仿
真。研究发现，气候变暖将促使大多数农作物（如玉米、水稻、甘蔗等）的单产增加，但市场的供求规律将
使得相关农产品价格逆向浮动，进而改变农户种植行为，促使他们将大量农地挪用于种植其他价高作物；
降水减少使得甘蔗、马铃薯等单产减少，且水稻和谷物的种植面积、价格与行业增加值下降；二氧化碳浓度
提高将使得绝大多数农作物的产量得到正向提升，仅不利于纤维作物增产。总体而言，气候变化有利于中
国整体的GDP 增长。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Agriculture is the industry that would be seriously affected by weather, and climate change would
have profound impacts on crop productivity and planting structure. To make clear this problem, this paper set
several scenarios considering temperature changes, precipitation decline and CO2 concentration increase, and build
a DNDC—CGE model of China to simulate them. The results show that temperature rise will increase the unit
yields of most crops, but market supply-demand discipline would make their prices float reversely, which change
framers’ behavior, transferring farmlands to plant other crops which price would be increased by the marker forces.
Precipitation decline will decrease most crops’ yields, especially sugarcane and potato, and the planting area, price
and added value of rice and grain will decrease. On the other hand, CO2 concentration increase will increase most
crops’ yields, but it is unbeneficial to fiber crop’s production increase. In total, Climate change is good for the GDP
growth of China. |
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