| 沈莲花1，徐 丽2，曹宗宏2，代娜娜1.新“五化”协同发展对安徽省农村居民
收入影响的实证分析[J].广东农业科学,2017,44(4):166-172 |
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新“五化”协同发展对安徽省农村居民
收入影响的实证分析 |
| Empirical analysis on effect of collaborative developmentof new“ five-modernization” on income of ruralresidents in Anhui province |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2017.04.025 |
| 中文关键词: “五化” 农村居民收入 因子分析 VAR 模型 脉冲响应函数 方差分解 |
| 英文关键词: “five-modernization” rural residents' income factor analysis VAR model impulse response
function variance decomposition |
| 基金项目:教育部人文社科基金（16YJA630003） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 2238 |
| 全文下载次数: 785 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 基于安徽省1990—2015 年数据，采用向量自回归（VAR）模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等
统计方法，从城镇化、工业化、农业现代化、信息化和绿色化（以下简称“五化”）的角度研究促进安徽省
农村居民收入增长的可能路径。研究发现：（1）“五化”协同发展与农村居民收入间存在长期均衡关系，但
“五化”间的协调程度不高，短期内影响力有限。（2）信息化、城镇化总体上会带来32.7326%、11.28629%
的贡献率，对农村居民收入有显著的促进作用；工业化和农业现代化均引起了农村居民收入正的响应，且
影响农村居民收入增长的步调较一致；绿色化短期内会引起农村居民收入幅度较小的波动，绿色化为农村
居民带来的经济效益不显著。安徽省可通过加大绿色化创新，发挥绿色化的生态效益；大力推进“五化”
协调发展，通过以信带工，以工促农，城乡结合的方式促进农村经济和农民收入的增长。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the time series data of Anhui province from 1990 to 2015，this paper used vector
autoregressive（ VAR） to explore the possibibities of promoting the income growth of rural residents in Anhui
province，approaching it from five appects: urbanization，industrialization，agricultural modernization，
informatization and greenification（ hereinafter referred to as“ five-modernization”） . It is concluded that there is
a long-term equilibrium relationship between collaborative development of the“ five-modernization”and incomes
of rural residents，though it is not statistically significant in short-run. Informationization and urbanization bring
about 32.7326% and 11.28629% of the contribution rate respectively，which show they both have profound effects
on incomes of rural residents，the positive shocks on industrialization and agricultural modernization lead to positive
responses of income of rural residents，which are noticeable in step，while a positive shock on greenization causes a
statistically significant income fluctuation，which means there is no valid economic benefits. Therefore，it is suggested
that we could focus on the green innovation and enjoy the ecological benefits，vigorously promote coordinated development of the“ five-modernization”，and properly utilize information technology to promote industrialization，
then to promote agricultural modernization，ultimately to increase noticeable income growth of rural residents，with
the combination of town and country. |
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