| 丁银银，刘鹏凌.安徽省城乡消费结构变动趋势比较研究[J].广东农业科学,2017,44(9):148-153 |
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安徽省城乡消费结构变动趋势比较研究 |
| Comparative study on the change trends of urban and rural consumption structure in Anhui province |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2017.09.022 |
| 中文关键词: 消费结构 城乡差异 灰色关联分析 灰色预测 |
| 英文关键词: consumption structure rural-urban differences grey correlation analysis gray prediction |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1712 |
| 全文下载次数: 637 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 城乡差距是当今社会客观存在的重大难题，城乡消费差距则是其具体表现之一。消费系统十分
复杂，易受内外因素变动的影响，在不同时期、地域，都呈现不同特征。对比研究城乡消费结构，剖析变动
原因，缩小消费差距，对统筹城乡发展意义重大。根据恩格尔系数，将2002—2016 年划分为3 个阶段，借
助灰色系统理论，测算各阶段安徽城乡人均总消费与各消费项目之间的灰色关联度，对比分析安徽城乡消
费结构变动趋势及其原因，并建立GM（1，1）模型，分析城乡消费结构的未来发展趋向，最后对安徽消费
政策的制定提出参考意见。研究发现农村消费水平显然较低，城乡消费差异在当前以及今后较长时期内会
存在，消费结构渐趋优化，但是其过程具有一定的反复性和波动性。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The urban-rural gap is a major problem that exists objectively at present，and the urban-rural
consumption gap is one of its concrete manifestations. The consumption system is very complicated and easily
affected by the change of internal and external factors，and different characteristics are presented in different periods
and regions. Comparing the urban and rural consumption structure，analyzing the causes of change and narrowing the
consumption gap is of great significance to balance urban and rural development. According to the Engel’s coefficient，the
period of 2002-2016 is divided into three stages. Calculate the gray correlation between the per capita consumption
and the consumption items of town and country of Anhui in each stage with the gray system theory. Analyze the trends
and causes of urban and rural consumption structure. Then build GM（ 1，1） model to analyze the future development
trend of urban and rural consumption structure. Finally the reference opinions are given to make consumer policy.
The study finds that the rural consumption level is obviously lower，and the differences between urban and rural
consumption will exist in the present and future for a long time，and the consumption structure has been optimized
gradually，but the process has a certain degree of repeatability and volatility. |
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