| 聂 弯1，谢彦明2.农药使用强度对农作物病虫害发生面积的影响 ——基于随机效应面板模型的实证分析[J].广东农业科学,2018,45(1):135-142 |
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农药使用强度对农作物病虫害发生面积的影响 ——基于随机效应面板模型的实证分析 |
| Impact of pesticide use intensity on the occurrence area of crop diseases and insect pests—Empirical analysis based on the random effects model |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2018.01.022 |
| 中文关键词: 病虫害 农药使用强度 作物多样性 面板数据 随机效应模型 |
| 英文关键词: diseases and insect pests pesticide use intensity crop diversity panel data random effects
model |
| 基金项目:云南省哲学社会科学重大项目（ZDZB201707） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 2051 |
| 全文下载次数: 841 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 在对2003—2013 年30 个省（市、自治区）面板数据进行单位根检验的基础上，采用面板数
据随机效应模型就农药使用强度对农作物病虫害发生面积的影响进行实证分析。结果表明：农药使用强度
对农作物病虫害发生面积具有显著的正向促进作用，农药使用强度越大，农作物病虫害发生面积越大。农
药使用强度每增加1 个单位会显著增加农作物病虫害发生面积0.2308 个单位，并且在全部样本、东部地区
样本和中部地区样本均表现显著，反映出通过增加农药使用强度防治农作物病虫害发生的传统认识有待改
变。而作物多样性对农作物病虫害发生面积的影响为负。根据研究结论，提出科学使用农药、保护作物多样
性、东部地区和中部地区亟待先行等对策建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| A random effects model was used to analyze the influence of pesticide use intensity on the occurrence
area of crop diseases and insect pests using the unit root tests with the panel data set covering the 30 provinces，
autonomous regions，and municipalities in China for the period 2003 - 2013. The results show that the intensity of
pesticide use has significantly positive effect on the occurrence area of crop diseases and insect pests. The higher
the intensity of pesticide use，the larger occurrence area of crop diseases and insect pests. Specifically，the increase
in pesticide use intensity by 1 unit will significantly increases the area of crop pests and diseases 0.2308 units. All
samples show a similar ratio in both eastern regions and central regions，which indicates the traditional knowledge，
which the increase in the pesticide use intensity could reduce the occurrence area of crop diseases，need to be
changed. Nevertheless，crop diversity has a negative effect on the occurrence area of crop diseases and insect pests.
Finally，some patterns of pesticide use，conservation of crop diversity in both the eastern and central china are
proposed. |
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