| 杨文军1，2，李栋梁1，陈 荣3，李红英4.宁夏贺兰山东麓酿酒葡萄晚霜冻灾害致灾危险性分析[J].广东农业科学,2018,45(5):127-133 |
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宁夏贺兰山东麓酿酒葡萄晚霜冻灾害致灾危险性分析 |
| Analysis on hazard risk of late frost for wine grape in the east foot area of Helan Mountain in Ningxia |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2018.05.021 |
| 中文关键词: 酿酒葡萄 晚霜冻 时空分布 致灾因子 危险性分析 宁夏 |
| 英文关键词: wine grape late frosts temporal and spatial distribution disaster-inducing factors risk Ningxia |
| 基金项目:宁夏自然科学基金（NZ14217）；国家公益性行业（气象）科研重大专项（GYHY201506001-1） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 收集宁夏贺兰山东麓9 个气象站1961—2015 年4～5 月的日最低气温观测资料，运用数理统
计和GIS 空间分析法，从气候致灾角度研究了酿酒葡萄晚霜冻日数和频率变化规律以及霜冻灾害致灾危险
性。结果表明，近55 年来，宁夏贺兰山东麓晚霜冻发生日数在78～233 d 之间，轻霜冻发生日数明显多于中
霜冻和重霜冻，随年代变化整体呈下降趋势，且轻霜冻发生日数下降速度大于中霜冻和重霜冻；霜冻频率
除北部大武口外呈现自北向南辐射递减的规律，各等级霜冻频率最大出现在陶乐，最小出现在大武口，随
年代变化总体呈下降趋势。霜冻频率除惠农持续下降外，其他各站在下降过程中均出现2 个或3 个跃升阶
段；各站酿酒葡萄晚霜冻致灾危险性大部处于中度偏低水平，且随着气候变化，霜冻致灾危险性有变小的
趋势，中、低等致灾危险范围明显增大，截至2015 年，高危险性区域基本消失，次高和中等危险区域范围
也大大缩小。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the April-May daily minimum temperature data with nine weather stations in the east foot
area of Helan Mountain in Ningxia during 1961—2015. The number of days ，frequency changes and hazard risk of
late frost for wine grape are researched from the perspective of climate disaster，that using mathematical statistics and
GIS spatial analysis.The results show that the days of late frost are between 78—233d in recent 55 years. The number
of light frost is significantly more than that of medium frost and heavy frost，the change in time shows a decreasing
trend. The rate of decline is greater than that of medium frost and heavy frost.The frost frequency showed the rule of
decreasing radiation from north to south except for Dawukou in the north . The place where frost frequency of each grade is greatest in Taole，least in Dawukou，the trend declined with the change of years. The frost frequency in the
other stations showed two or three jumps in the descending process in addition to the continued decline of Huinong.
The hazard risk of each station is mostly moderate to low level and getting smaller，the medium and low range is
obviously increasing with climate change. As of 2015，the areas of high-risk have largely disappeared，and the areas
of secondary and medium risk have also been greatly reduced. |
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