| 李春生，王亚星.城镇化对农业产业结构升级的影响研究[J].广东农业科学,2018,45(5):159-165 |
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城镇化对农业产业结构升级的影响研究 |
| Research on the influence of urbanization on the upgrading of agricultural structure |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2018.05.025 |
| 中文关键词: 城镇化 农业产业结构 格兰杰检验 VAR 模型 实证分析 |
| 英文关键词: urbanization agricultural industrial structure granger causality test VAR model empirical
analysis |
| 基金项目:中国博士后科学基金（2017M620986） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1791 |
| 全文下载次数: 612 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 从产业结构变动的主要影响因素和农业经济的特点出发，对城镇化影响农业产业结构升级的
作用机制进行理论分析；根据1978—2016 年的统计数据，运用VAR 模型对改革开放以来我国城镇化对农
业产业结构升级的动态作用进行实证分析。结果表明：在市场经济条件下，城镇化主要通过提升需求结构、
改善供给结构和推动农业市场化对农业产业结构升级产生影响；改革开放以来，我国的城镇化对狭义农业
产业结构升级的作用大于对广义农业产业结构升级的作用，原因在于种植业产品的需求收入弹性差异相对
较小、要素供给结构调整相对较快。推动户籍人口城镇化、加强农用土地监管和进一步推进农业市场化，有
利于更好地发挥城镇化对农业产业结构升级的积极作用。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| From the main influencing factors of industrial structure changes and the characteristics of
agricultural production，this article analyses the mechanism of urbanization affecting the upgrading of agricultural
industrial structure. According to the statistical data from 1978 to 2016，the VAR model was used to empirically
analyze the dynamic effects of China's urbanization on the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure since the
reform and opening up. The results of the study indicate that under the conditions of market economy，urbanization
has an impact on upgrading the structure of the agricultural industry mainly through upgrading the demand structure，
improving the supply structure and promoting the marketization of agriculture. Since the reform and opening up，
China’s urbanization has played a more important role in upgrading the industrial structure of the narrow sense
of agriculture than the structure of the general agricultural industry. The reason is that the difference in the income
elasticity of demand for crop products is relatively small，and the adjustment of the supply structure of elements is
relatively rapid. Promoting the urbanization of household registration population，strengthening agricultural land
management and improving the agricultural market system are conducive to better exerting the positive effects of
urbanization on the upgrading of the agricultural industry structure. |
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