| 谢玫仪1，李玖灵2.广东农村贫困变动及分解效应研究[J].广东农业科学,2018,45(6):165-172 |
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广东农村贫困变动及分解效应研究 |
| Study on rural poverty change and decomposition effect in Guangdong province |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2018.06.026 |
| 中文关键词: 农村相对贫困 经济增长 收入分配 贫困线变动 GQ 模型 Beta 模型 |
| 英文关键词: rural relative poverty economic growth income distribution poverty line change GQ model Beta model |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金（71303062） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1496 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于2000—2014 年广东农村五等份居民收入分组数据，采用GQ 模型和Beta 模型拟合洛伦兹
曲线，分别计算绝对贫困线下和相对贫困线下广东农村居民的贫困规模，进而采用三因素Shapley 值分解方
法实证分析进入21 世纪以来经济增长、收入分配及贫困线变动对贫困变动的影响作用。结果表明，以相对
贫困线对广东农村贫困规模进行测度更为合理；经济增长在2000—2014 年间对减贫一直起正向作用；收入
分配在不同时期对贫困减少起不同作用，2000—2004 年收入分配不利于贫困减少，2005—2014 年收入分配
结构改善，对减贫起着正向作用；贫困线变动则一直对减贫起负向作用，物价变动和生活成本的提高抵消
了经济增长和收入分配结构改善的大部分减贫成效，阻碍了广东农村减贫的进程。由此，要持续改善收入
分配结构，维持广东经济的稳定增长，抑制通货膨胀，才有助于广东解决相对贫困问题，实现全面建成小康
社会的目标。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on 2000-2014 Guangdong rural income grouped data in five slices，by using the GQ
model and the Beta model fitting the Lorenz curve and calculated the absolute poverty line and the relative poverty
line’s poverty scale of rural residents in Guangdong respectively，the paper adopted three factors Shapley value
decomposition method to analyze the impact of economic growth，income distribution and poverty line variation on
poverty changes since entering the 21st century. The results showed that it was more reasonable to measure the poverty
scale of Guangdong countryside by relative poverty line. Economic growth had been positive for poverty reduction from
2000 to 2014；Income distribution had different effect on poverty reduction in different periods，during 2000-2004，
income distribution was not conducive to poverty reduction，during 2005-2014，the income distribution structure
improved and played an positive role in poverty reduction. Poverty line variation had a negative effect on poverty
reduction，price changes and the rising cost of living offset much of the improvement of poverty reduction brought
by economic growth and income distribution structure improved，hindering the process of Guangdong rural poverty
reduction. Thus，improving income distribution structure，maintaining the steady growth of economy and curbing
inflation in Guangdong can play a promoting role in solving the relative poverty problem and achieving the goal of
building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. |
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