| 余永松1，庞正武1，周叶宁2，钟文峰3，何龙飞1，王爱勤1.广西蔬菜产量灰色预测模型GM（1，1）的建立及其相关性分析[J].广东农业科学,2018,45(7):157-164 |
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广西蔬菜产量灰色预测模型GM（1，1）的建立及其相关性分析 |
| Forecast and suggestion of vegetable production in Guangxibased on Gray Prediction Model GM（1, 1） |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2018.07.025 |
| 中文关键词: 灰色模型GM（1，1） 蔬菜产量预测 相关性分析 广西 |
| 英文关键词: gray model GM(1,1) vegetable yield forecasting correlation analysis Guangxi |
| 基金项目:广西研究生教育创新计划项目（YCSW2017042）；国家现代农业产业技术体系专项（nycytxgxcxtd-11-01） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1775 |
| 全文下载次数: 862 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 运用灰色系统理论，基于2008—2014年广西蔬菜产量数据，建立了广西蔬菜产量灰色预测模型GM（1, 1），对该模型进行残差检验、关联度检验以及后验差检验，并以2015—2016年广西蔬菜产量数据作为该模型精确度的实际检验。检验结果证明该模型可用。利用该模型预测广西2017—2019年的蔬菜产量分别为3 062.58万、3 225.196万、3 396.446万t；蔬菜产量与种植面积、消费量、财政支农支出呈极显著正相关，并提出关于蔬菜种植的相关建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the gray system theory and the data of vegetable production in Guangxi from 2008 to 2014, this paper established a gray forecasting model GM (1,1) of vegetable production in Guangxi province and carried out residual test, the correlation degree test and the posterior error test respectively. The test of model accuracy was confirmed based on the data of vegetable production in Guangxi from 2015 to 2016. The test results showed that the model was available. According to the prediction results of this model, the output of vegetables in Guangxi from 2017 to 2019 were 30 625 800 tons, 32 252 000 tons, 33 964 400 tons respectively. The yield of vegetable was positively correlated to planting area, consumption and financial expenditure. Based on the results, relevant policy suggestions of vegetable cultivation were proposed. |
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