| 聂 弯，杨滨键.农药使用强度及作物多样性对农作物病虫害发生面积的门槛效应[J].广东农业科学,2018,45(9):157-165 |
|
查看全文
HTML
农药使用强度及作物多样性对农作物病虫害发生面积的门槛效应 |
| Research on the threshold effects of the intensity of pesticide use, crop biodiversity and the occurrence acreageof crop diseasesand insect pests |
| |
| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2018.09.025 |
| 中文关键词: 农药 病虫害 作物多样性 门槛效应 面板数据 |
| 英文关键词: pesticide diseases and insect pests crop biodiversity threshold effect panel data |
| 基金项目:国家留学基金管理委员会国家建设高水平大学公派联合培养博士项目 |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 2099 |
| 全文下载次数: 909 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 基于2003—2013 年我国大陆30 个省（市、自治区）的面板数据，构建以农药使用强度和作
物多样性为门槛变量的面板门槛模型，分析农药使用强度及作物多样性对农作物病虫害发生面积的门槛效
应。结果表明，农药使用强度不但能增加农作物病虫害发生面积，而且具有明显的作物多样性门槛效应：
当作物多样性低于门槛值时，农药使用强度每增加1 个单位，农作物病虫害发生面积将增加0.8048 个单位；
当作物多样性高于门槛值时，农药使用强度对农作物病虫害发生面积的影响将降至低门槛值时的0.66 倍。
作物多样性对农作物病虫害发生面积具有明显的农药使用强度门槛效应，而且是双门槛：当农药使用强度
低于低门槛时，作物多样性对农作物病虫害发生面积会有比较显著的抑制作用；当农药使用强度在高低门
槛之间时，作物多样性对农作物病虫害发生面积的影响仍然为负但不显著；当农药使用强度高于高门槛时，
作物多样性对农作物病虫害发生面积的抑制作用比农药使用强度小于第一门槛值时更强烈。对此提出控制
农药使用强度、加强生物多样性保护等对策建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on provincial panel data of 30 provinces（cities and autonomous regions）from 2003 to 2013,
this paper built two panel threshold models which took the intensity of pesticide use and crop biodiversity as threshold
variables and analyzedthe threshold effect of the intensity of pesticide use and crop biodiversity on the occurrence
acreage of crop diseases and insect pests. The results showed that the intensity of pesticide use could not only
increase the occurrence acreage of crop diseases and insect pests, but also had a significant threshold effect on crop
biodiversity. When the crop biodiversity was lower than the threshold value, an extra unit of the intensity of pesticide
use would increase 0.8048 units of the occurrence acreage of crop diseases and insect pests; when the crop biodiversity
was higher than the threshold value, the impact of the intensity of pesticide use on the occurrence acreage of crop
diseases and insect pests would decrease to 0.66 times of its lower threshold value. Crop biodiversity had a significant
threshold effect on the occurrence acreage of crop diseases and insect pests, and it was double thresholds: when the
intensity of pesticide use was lower than the first threshold value, crop biodiversity had a significantly negative effect on the occurrence acreage of crop diseases and insect pests; when the intensity of pesticide use was between the first
and the second threshold values, the effect of crop biodiversity on the occurrence acreage of crop diseases and insect
pests was negative but not significant; when the intensity of pesticide use was higher than the second threshold value,
the effect of crop biodiversity on the occurrence acreage of crop diseases and insect pests would be more significant
than it was lower than the first threshold value. As a result, this paper put forward the following suggestions: controlling
the intensity of pesticide use and strengthening the protection of crop biodiversity. |
|
查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
