| 陈 莉，王 青.岷江上游藏区聚落土地利用演变及预测[J].广东农业科学,2019,46(1):141-147 |
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岷江上游藏区聚落土地利用演变及预测 |
| Evolution and Prediction of Land Use in Tibetan Settlement Areas in the Upper Reaches of Minjiang River |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2019.01.020 |
| 中文关键词: 岷江 藏区聚落 CA-Markov 模型 土地利用 演变预测 |
| 英文关键词: Minjiang River Tibetan settlements CA-Markov model land use evolution predictionx |
| 基金项目:四川省重点研发项目（2017SZ0086，2018SZ0345）；四川省科技厅应用基础研究项目（19YYJC0660）；四川省教育厅科研项目（18ZA0489） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 【目的】探究岷江上游藏区聚落土地利用类型、数量演变规律及空间分布。【方法】利用岷江上
游 1995、2005、2015 年 3 期土地利用数据，运用 CA-Markov 模型模拟预测了 2025 年岷江上游的土地利用情况。
在此基础上，对岷江上游藏区聚落 4 期土地进行对比分析。【结果】前期只有林地面积大幅减少，其他用地增加，
建设用地的动态度波动最大，总面积增加 139.52 hm2，而建设用地和裸地的增幅分别为 92.16% 和 25.72%；中期
只有建设用地面积大幅度增加，动态度波动最大，总面积增加 1 943.03 hm2，其他用地面积虽然减少，但动态度
变化不大；而近期裸地和旱地扭转减少的趋势变为增加，林地和草地分别减少 1 735.45、1 367.14 hm2，减少的
部分主要去向为建设用地和裸地。从整个研究期来看，研究区各类型土地所占比例变化很小，建设用地、裸地
以及旱地数量都有所增加。【结论】模拟结果具有一定可行性，较好地体现了岷江上游藏区聚落土地利用动态
变化的趋势，可对该地区土地资源优化配置提供一定程度的指导。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| 【Objective】The objective of this study is to explore the land use types, quantitative evolution law and
spatial distribution of the Tibetan settlements in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River.【Method】The land use data in 3
years (1995, 2005, 2015) were used to simulate and predict the land use in 2025 in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River
by using CA-Markov model .【Result】 The results showed that: (1) During the period of 1995—2005, the woodland area
decreased significantly, but other land use increased. The dynamic degree of construction land showed a highest fluctuation
with the total area increased by 139.52 hm2, while the growth rates of construction land and bare land were 92.16% and
25.72%, respectively. (2) During the period of 2005—2015, only the construction land area increased tremendously, and
the dynamic degree of which showed a highest fluctuation with the total area increased by 1 943.03 hm2, while other land
area decreased and the dynamic degree changed little. (3) During the period of 2015—2025, the use of bare land and dry
land began to increase. While woodland and grassland had decreased by 1 735.45 hm2 and 1 367.14 hm2, respectively. The
decreasing parts of woodland and grassland were changed to construction land and bare land. (4) During the whole study
period, the proportion of different types of land in the study areas changed little, and the number of construction land, bare
land and dry land increased slightly. 【Conclusion】The simulation results were feasible, which could well reflect the dynamic change trend of land use in Tibetan settlements in the upper reaches of Minjiang River, and provide some guidance for
the optimal allocation of land resources in this area. |
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