| 高维新，马诗宁.广东省农村金融信贷发展与经济增长的关系研究[J].广东农业科学,2019,46(2):156-163 |
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广东省农村金融信贷发展与经济增长的关系研究 |
| Research on the Relationship Between the Development of Rural Financial Credit and the Economic Growth in Guangdong Province |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2019.02.022 |
| 中文关键词: 农村信贷 农村经济 Var 模型 脉冲响应 格兰杰检验 |
| 英文关键词: rural credit rural economy Var model impulse response Granger test |
| 基金项目:广东省社科规划共建项目（GD17XY26） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 2247 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 【目的】广东省自改革开放以来，农村金融信贷在现代农村发展中地位日渐突出。分析广东省改
革开放以来农村金融信贷与经济增长的关系，为广东省未来的农村经济增长提供参考。【方法】运用描述性研
究法和文献研究法对当前广东省农村金融信贷以及农村经济的发展现状进行理论和现状分析。基于改革开放以
来的数据，将广东省的农村金融信贷从规模、效率与结构 3 个层面进行具体分解，运用 Eviews7.2 进行实证分析，
对数据进行平稳性检验并进行一定处理以建立 Var 模型，通过 Granger 因果检验与脉冲响应图对两者关系进行
深入探讨。【结果】农村金融信贷的规模、效率对农村经济的增长影响显著，而结构的作用力显得相对薄弱。
长期来看，农村信贷的 3 个维度都会对农村经济产生一定程度影响。【结论】在政府的引导下，应扩大农村信
贷规模，提升农村信贷效率，加强农村信贷后的监督，建立较为完善的担保机制。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| 【Objective】Since the reform and opening up in Guangdong Province, rural financial credit has become
increasingly prominent in modern rural development. This paper analyzed the relationship between rural financial credit
and economic growth since the reform and opening up of Guangdong Province in order to provide reference for the future
rural economic growth. 【Method】This paper analyzed the current situation of rural financial credit and rural economy
development in Guangdong Province from the perspectives of theory and present situation with descriptive research method
and literature research method. Based on the data since the reform and opening up, this paper analyzed the scale, efficiency
and structure of rural financial credit in Guangdong Province, and made an empirical analysis with Eviws7.2. The stationary
test of the data was carried out and processed to establish the Var model. The relationship between the two was explored
by Granger causality test and the impulse response diagram.【Result】It was found that the scale and efficiency of rural
financial credit had a significant impact on the growth of rural economy while the structure had a relatively weak impact on
that. In the long run, the three dimensions of rural credit will have certain impact on the rural economy. 【Conclusion】
Under the guidance of government, we should expand the scale of rural credit, improve the efficiency of rural credit,
strengthen supervision upon rural credit and establish a perfect guarantee mechanism. |
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