| 刘 欢，肖洪安.主产区、主销区与全国羊肉价格波动差异研究——基于 PVAR 模型的实证分析[J].广东农业科学,2019,46(7):162-172 |
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主产区、主销区与全国羊肉价格波动差异研究——基于 PVAR 模型的实证分析 |
| Study on the Difference of Mutton Price Fluctuation in Main Producing Area, Main Selling Area and the Whole Country—Empirical Analysis Based on PVAR Model |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2019.07.023 |
| 中文关键词: 羊肉价格 主产区 主销区 价格传导 PVAR 模型 |
| 英文关键词: mutton price main producing area main selling area price conduction PVAR model |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金（13XJY021）；四川省科技厅软科学项目（18RKX0778）；四川省社会科学规划重大项目（SC17ZD06） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 2121 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 【目的】掌握我国羊肉价格区域之间的波动差异，为制定科学合理的价格调控政策提供参考，进
一步促进我国畜牧业健康发展。【方法】采用 2000 年 3 月至 2018 年 9 月的季度数据，分别构建主产区、主销
区与全国羊肉市场价格作为价格序列的面板数据，运用面板向量自回归模型（PVAR）对 3 个价格序列进行区域
差异分析。【结果】除主产区黑龙江省外，主产区、主销区与全国羊肉价格互为双向因果关系；主产区、主销
区的羊肉价格波动对全国羊肉价格具有显著的影响作用，相比于其他省份，内蒙古、四川和上海对全国羊肉市
场价格形成具有主导作用；主产区羊肉价格波动的贡献率普遍高于主销区，价格调控政策不能一刀切，应重点
放在羊肉生产方面。【结论】主产区和主销区羊肉价格之间存在较大的区域差异，羊肉价格调控政策需考虑区
域差异。建议政府应重点加强供给层面扶持奖励政策、完善羊肉市场信息发布及预警机制，并健全完善羊肉主
产区和主销区全产业链追溯体系，确保羊肉市场稳健运行。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| 【Objective】 The study was to grasp the fluctuations of mutton price among different regions in China,
and develop scientific and reasonable price control policies to promote the healthy development of China's animal husbandry.
【Method】 With the quarterly data from March 2000 to September 2018, mutton price of main production area, main
selling area and the national mutton market price were constructed as panel data of the price series, regional difference
analysis of three price series was conducted by using panel vector autoregressive model (PVAR). 【Result】 Except for
the main producing area of Heilongjiang Province, mutton prices of the main producing areas and the main selling areas
have a bidirectional causal relationship with the national mutton price. The fluctuation of mutton prices in the main producing
area and the main selling area has significant influence on the national mutton price. Compared with other provinces, Inner
Mongolia, Sichuan and Shanghai have a leading role in the formation of the national mutton market price; the contribution rate
of mutton price fluctuations in the main producing areas is generally higher than that in the main selling areas, and the price control policies cannot be imposed in all areas and should focus on mutton production. 【Conclusion】There is a great regional
difference between the mutton price in the main producing area and the main selling areas, and regional differences need to be
consider for the control policy of mutton price. The government should focus on strengthening support policies at the supply level,
improving information release and early warning mechanism for the mutton market, and perfecting the traceability system for the
entire industrial chain of the main production areas and main selling areas to ensure the sound operation of the mutton market. |
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