| 郭瑞鸽，蔡 哲，刘文英.早春热量资源变化及对双季早稻早播的可行性分析[J].广东农业科学,2020,47(9):12-22 |
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早春热量资源变化及对双季早稻早播的可行性分析 |
| Thermal Resources Variation in Early Spring and Feasibility Analysis on Early Rice Sowing in Advance in Double Cropping System |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2020.09.002 |
| 中文关键词: 早春 热量资源 双季早稻 早播 气候可行性 |
| 英文关键词: early spring thermal resources early rice in double cropping system early sowing climate feasibility |
| 基金项目:中国气象局气候变化专项（CCFS201840）；江西省气象局重点项目；国内外作物产量气象预报专项 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 【目的】明晰气候变化背景下江西早春时期热量资源的变化特征，论证提早播种双季早稻的气候可行性，为提高气候资源利用率、优化早稻种植提供参考。【方法】利用江西省 79 个气象站 1960—2019 年 3—4 月地面观测资料，分析早春热量资源时空分布和变化特征；根据早稻播种对天气条件的要求，构建双季早稻早播的气候可行性判别方法，分析早春热量资源变化对双季早稻早播的可行性。【结果】1960—2019 年早春平均气温和有效积温均呈现显著的上升趋势，气候倾向率分别为 0.3℃ /10 年、10.1℃·d/10 年。早春晴暖天发生频率呈上升趋势，近 30 年（1990—2019）10、12℃晴暖天发生频率分别为 80%、73%，较前 30 年（1960—1989）分别上升 11%、9%。过去 60 年，年均 75%、68% 的县份分别具备采用保温方式和直播方式早播的气候可行性；早播气候可行年的发生频率呈上升趋势。【结论】过去 60 年江西早春时期热量资源呈现出平均气温上升、有效积温增多、晴暖天气增多为主的变化特征，具备提早播种双季早稻的气候可行性。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| 【Objective】The study was to identify the variation characteristics of early spring thermal resources and demonstrate the climate feasibility for early rice sowing in advance for the sake of higher utilization rate of climatic resources and better early rice planting mode.【Method】Based on the surface observation data from 79 meteorological stations in Jiangxi Province during 1960-2019, the temporal and spatial distribution and variation characteristics of early spring （from Mar 1st to Apr 10th） thermal resources were analyzed. According to the requirements of climate conditions for early rice sowing, the estimate methods of climate feasibility for early rice sowing in advance were built, and the feasibility of early spring thermal resources variation on early rice sowing in advance in double cropping system was analyzed.【Result】Both average temperature and effective accumulated temperature in early spring increased significantly in recent 60 years （1960-2019）, with the climatic trend rates of 0.3℃ /10a and 10.1℃·d/10a, respectively. The occurrence frequency of warm sunny days in early spring showed an increasing trend, and the occurrence frequencies of 10℃ warm sunny days and 12℃ warm sunny days in the recent 30 years （1990-2019） were 80% and 73% respectively, which increased by 11% and 9% respectively compared with those of the previous 30 years （1960-1989）. In the past 60 years, the climate was feasible for sowing with thermal shed in advance in 75% counties and for direct sowing in advance in 68% counties, and the frequency of feasible years for early sowing showed an upward trend.【Conclusion】In the past 60 years, the thermal resources in early spring showed the variation characteristics of increased average temperature and effective accumulated temperature with more frequent warm sunny days, which had feasible climate for early rice sowing in advance in double cropping system. |
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