| 唐玉凤，周 伟.关税对中美双边水产品出口三元边际的影响分析[J].广东农业科学,2021,48(6):136-144 |
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关税对中美双边水产品出口三元边际的影响分析 |
| Analysis of Impacts of Tariffs on the Three Margins of Sino-US Bilateral Aquatic Product Exports |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2021.06.018 |
| 中文关键词: 关税 水产品出口 三元边际 贸易摩擦 贸易壁垒 |
| 英文关键词: tariff aquatic products export three margins trade friction trade barrier |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金（19BJY129） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 【目的】在中美贸易摩擦的背景下，分析关税对中美双边水产品出口增长的三元边际的影响，并
提出保持中美双边水产品出口增长的政策建议。【方法】利用三元边际分析模型、VAR 模型探究中美双边水产
品出口增长的内在机制，并对影响中美双边水产品出口增长的主要因素进行分析。【结果】从整体来看，在中
国对美国的水产品出口中，数量边际贡献了 83.98%，价格边际次之为、41.34%，扩展边际产生了负贡献为、-
25.32%；在美国对中国的水产品出口中，数量边际贡献最大、为 74.73%，价格边际次之、为 13.25%，扩展边际
最低、为 12.01%。从关税的影响来看，在中国对美国的水产品出口中，关税对扩展边际的影响最大、为 8.89%，
数量边际和价格边际较小、为 1.35% 和 0.06%；在美国对中国的水产品出口中，关税对价格边际的影响最大、
为 23.26%，扩展边际次之、为 11.07%，数量边际最低为、8.51%。【结论】提高自身的核心竞争力，培育新品种，
打造国际化品牌，积极开拓市场实现多元化，积极创造有利的贸易条件。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| 【Objective】Under the background of Sino-US trade friction, this paper analyzes the impacts of tariffs on
the three margins of Sino-US bilateral aquatic product export growth, and puts forward some policy suggestions to maintain
the growth of Sino-US bilateral aquatic product export. 【Method】The ternary marginal analysis model and VAR model
were used to explore the internal mechanism of Sino-US bilateral aquatic product export growth, and the main factors
affecting the growth of Sino-US bilateral aquatic product export were analyzed.【Result】On the whole, in China's aquatic
product exports to the United States, the quantity margin brought a contribution of 83.98%, the price margin of 41.34%,
while the expansion margin produced a negative contribution of -25.32%. In the export of aquatic products from the United
States to China, the quantity margin produced a contribution of 74.73%, the price margin of 13.25%, and the expansion
margin of 12.01%. From the perspective of the impact of tariff, in China's aquatic product exports to the United States,
the maximum impact of tariff on the expansion margin was 8.89%, the quantity margin and price margin were 1.35% and
0.06%, respectively. In the aquatic products exported from the United States to China, the impact of tariff on price margin
was 23.26%, expansion margin was 11.07%, and quantity margin was 8.51%.【Conclusion】It is suggested to improve the
core competitiveness of products, cultivate new varieties, build international brands, actively explore the market to achieve
diversification, and actively create favorable trade conditions. |
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