| 高 云.国内外天然橡胶期现货价格波动关系研究[J].广东农业科学,2021,48(7):161-168 |
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国内外天然橡胶期现货价格波动关系研究 |
| Study on the Relationship between Futures and Spot Prices of Natural Rubber at Home and Abroad |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2021.07.020 |
| 中文关键词: 天然橡胶 期货价格 现货价格 单位根检验 格兰杰检验 发现作用 |
| 英文关键词: natural rubber futures price spot price unit root test Granger test discovery function |
| 基金项目:农业农村部规划设计研究院粮食等重要农产品供需形势监测与分析（06190014） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 【目的】近年来，随着重要农产品保障战略的逐步实施，党和国家十分重视天然橡胶产业发展，
天然橡胶等战略性农产品的供需形势及价格走势越来越受到社会各界的关注。尤其是新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来，
构建国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局显得至关重要。天然橡胶作为国内重要的战略物资，期货市场发展
日渐成熟，研究其国内外价格波动关系规律也就势在必行。【方法】利用 2010 年以来商务部对国内外天然橡胶
的统计数据，采用单位根检验、格兰杰检验、脉冲响应模型、方差分析等经济学模型方法分析了国内外天然橡
胶期现货价格波动规律及内在联系，并对未来天然橡胶供需走势进行了预测。【结果】天然橡胶国内期货价格
影响着国内现货价格，也影响着国际期货价格变动，国内期货价格上涨会对国外期货和国内现货价格产生正向
影响，但受国际期货价格影响的程度是国内期货价格影响的近 10 倍；国内期货价格的发现作用较强，价格辐射
力越来越大。【结论】基于国内外天然橡胶期现货价格波动的关系，建议出台提升天然橡胶产业竞争力的优化
天然橡胶生产保护区精准支持政策、对天然橡胶市场监测预警、强化天然橡胶产业链各环节建设等政策建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| 【Objective】In recent years, with the gradual implementation of important agricultural product security
strategies, the Party and the State attach great importance to the development of natural rubber industry. The supply and
demand situation and price trend of natural rubber and other strategic agricultural products are paid more and more attention
from all sectors of society. Especially, since the outbreak of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia, it is of great importance to build
a new development paradigm featuring dual circulation, in which domestic and international markets reinforce each other.
Natural rubber is an important strategic material in China and futures markets are maturing, therefore, it is imperative to
study the relationship between domestic and foreign price fluctuations of natural rubber.【Method】With the statistics data
of the natural rubber at home and abroad since 2010 from Ministry of Commerce, the unit root test and Granger test, impulse
response model, analysis of variance model are used to analyze fluctuation rule and inner link of the natural rubber futures
and spot prices at home and abroad, and the future trend of supply and demand for natural rubber is forecast.【Result】It is
found that the domestic futures price of natural rubber affects both the domestic spot price and the change of the international
futures price. The increase of the domestic futures price will have a positive impact on the foreign futures price and domestic
spot price, but the influence of the international futures price is nearly 10 times than that of the domestic futures price. The discovery effect of domestic futures price is stronger and the radiation force of price is stronger and stronger.【Conclusion】
Based on the relationship between the futures and spot price fluctuations in natural rubber at home and abroad, some policy
suggestions are put forward to improve the competitiveness of natural rubber industry, such as the precise support policy for
optimizing natural rubber production reserves, monitoring and early warning of natural rubber market and strengthening of each
link of natural rubber industry chain. |
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