| 赖焕明 1，吴大放 1，黎怡姗 2，刘艳艳 1，马佩芳 1，李昭铖 1，梁逸璇 1.广州市耕地生态风险评价与预测研究[J].广东农业科学,2023,50(1):164-176 |
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广州市耕地生态风险评价与预测研究 |
| Study on Ecological Risk Evaluation and Prediction of Cultivated Land in Guangzhou |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2023.01.015 |
| 中文关键词: 耕地生态 耕地风险 相对生态风险模型 灰色预测模型 广州市 |
| 英文关键词: cultivated land ecology cultivated land risk relative ecological risk model grey prediction model Guangzhou City |
| 基金项目:广东省哲学社会科学“十三五”规划 2020 年度学科共建项目（GD20XYJ32）；广东省普通高校特色创新类项目（2022WTSCX087）；广州市教育局高校科研项目（202235269）；广州大学校内科研项目（YJ2021007） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 【目的】开展市域耕地生态风险综合评价与预测，是有效揭示区域性耕地利用格局与生态环境演变关系的重要途径，以期服务于广州市生态文明建设。【方法】基于相对风险模型，构建“问题形成 - 分析阶段 -风险表征 - 分区防控”风险路径的耕地生态风险评价指标体系，对 2000—2018 年广州市耕地生态风险进行综合评价，并运用灰色预测模型，以广州市 2000—2015 年每隔 5 年的各指标数据为初始值，预测 2020—2025 年广州市耕地生态风险，提出相应的调控与优化措施。【结果】2000—2005 年，广州市耕地生态风险处于较低风险状态，其中 2000、2005 年耕地生态风险综合评价的平均指数分别为 0.3327 和 0.3272；2010—2018 年，广州市耕地生态风险处于低风险状态，其中 2010、2015、2018 年耕地生态风险综合评价的平均指数分别为 0.3296、0.3016和 0.3078。综合评价表明，广州市耕地生态风险以低风险等级和较低风险等级占主导地位，较高生态风险区（Ⅳ区）主要分布在天河区、黄埔区，高生态风险区（Ⅴ区）主要分布在白云区东北部和黄埔区西北部。预测广州市 2025 年前耕地生态风险等级均处于低风险，2025 年耕地生态风险预测值为 0.2836。【结论】研究期内广州市耕地生态风险状况呈现转好趋势，从 2000—2005 年的较低风险状态转为 2010—2018 年的低风险状态；未来短中期内，广州市耕地生态风险状况将保持低风险等级，应持续协调自然环境、社会经济发展和耕地景观格局之间的关系。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| 【Objective】A comprehensive evaluation and prediction of ecological risks of cultivated land in Guangzhou City was carried out to effectively reveal the evolution relationship of between the pattern of cultivated land use and the ecological environment, with a view to serving the construction of ecological civilization in Guangzhou City.【Method】Based on the relative risk model, the study tried to construct a new index system for evaluating the ecological risks of cultivated land, which followed the main risk path of “problem formation-analysis stage -risk characterization-zoning prevention and control”. And a comprehensive evaluation of the ecological risks of cultivated land in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2018 was conducted; with the data of various indicators of Guangzhou City at five-year intervals from 2000 to 2015 as initial values, the grey prediction model was used to forecast the ecological risks of cultivated land in the study area in 2020-
2025. And corresponding measures to regulate and optimize the ecological risks of regional cultivated land were proposed.【Result】The ecological risk of cultivated land in Guangzhou was at lower risk status from 2000 to 2005, and the average indexes of the comprehensive evaluation of the ecological risk of cultivated land in 2000 and 2005 were 0.3327 and 0.3272, respectively; the ecological risk of cultivated land in Guangzhou was at low risk status from 2010 to 2018, and the average indexes for the comprehensive evaluation of the ecological risk of cultivated land in 2010, 2015 and 2018 were 0.3296, 0.3016 and 0.3078, respectively. Based on the comprehensive evaluation, the cultivated land of low risk- and lower risk- level held a dominant post, and the higher ecological risk areas (Zone Ⅳ ) were mainly located in Tianhe District and Huangpu District, and the high ecological risk areas (Zone Ⅴ ) located in northeastern of Baiyun District and northwestern of Huangpu District. The ecological risk level of cultivated land in Guangzhou will be at low risk status before 2025, with the predicted risk index of 0.2836.【Conclusion】Based on the above research results, the ecological risk status of cultivated land in Guangzhou shows an improving trend in the past study period, from the lower risk status in 2000-2005 to a low risk status in 2010-2018. In the short to medium term, the ecological risk status of cultivated land in Guangzhou will remain at a low risk level, and the relationship between natural environment, socio-economic development and landscape pattern of cultivated land should be continuously harmonized. |
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