| 梁伟森，储霞玲，郑林秀，叶高松，陈俊秋.广东省蔬菜产业高质量发展的区域差异与动态演进[J].广东农业科学,2023,50(9):218-230 |
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广东省蔬菜产业高质量发展的区域差异与动态演进 |
| Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution of High-quality Development of Vegetable Industry in Guangdong Province |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2023.09.023 |
| 中文关键词: 蔬菜产业 高质量发展 Dagum 基尼系数 核密度估计 Markov 链 |
| 英文关键词: vegetable industry high-quality development Dagum Gini coefficient kernel density estimation Markov chain |
| 基金项目:广东省乡村振兴战略专项资金（粤财农〔2022〕92 号）；广东省蔬菜新技术研究重点实验室开放课题（202007，202307）；佛山市哲学社会科学规划项目青年项目（2023-QN14） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 【目的】伴随居民“菜篮子”日益丰富，蔬菜产业发展发生了一定变化，构建指标体系探讨其高质量发展水平，分析其区域差异和动态演进具有重要意义。【方法】以蔬菜消费大省广东为例，基于 2015—2021 年全省各市（除深圳）的面板数据，在使用熵值 TOPSIS 方法测度蔬菜产业高质量发展水平的基础上，通过 Dagum 基尼系数、核密度估计、传统及空间 Markov 链探讨蔬菜产业高质量发展的区域差异与动态演进规律。【结果】（1）“十三五”以来广东蔬菜产业高质量发展水平呈波动上升态势，高水平地区以蔬菜种植面积较大的城市为主。（2）成果共享、生产效率、要素支撑维度指数涨幅均超过 25%，绿色低碳维度涨幅超过 20%，蔬菜供给维度涨幅最小，但也超过 10%。（3）研究期内的总体区域差距先升后降、有所缩小，差距主要来源于超变密度，其次是区域间差异，再次是区域内差异。（4）产业发展的动态演进整体呈现向好态势，样本地区发展水平的等级转移具有稳定性，较低等级的城市向上转移的概率普遍大于向下转移。【结论】广东蔬菜产业正逐步迈向高质量发展，其区域差异及动态演进呈现一定规律性变化。建议多方主体共建省级蔬菜产业信息平台，因地制宜推进冷链建设；加大蔬菜品种选育力度，着力开展绿色防控技术研究与推广；针对不同地区的薄弱项目进行差异化改进，提高蔬菜产业高质量发展水平。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| 【Objective】With the increasing abundance of residents “vegetable baskets”, certain changes have also taken place in the development of the vegetable industry. It is of great significance to construct an indicator system to explore its high-quality development level, and analyze its regional differences and dynamic evolution. 【Method】Taking Guangdong, a major vegetable consumption province, as an example, based on panel data from various cities in the province (excluding Shenzhen) from 2015 to 2021, and by using the entropy TOPSIS method to measure the level of high-quality development of the vegetable industry, the research explores the regional differences and dynamic evolution laws of high-quality development of vegetable industry through Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, traditional and spatial Markov chains.【Result】(1) Since the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the high-quality development level of vegetable industry in Guangdong has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with high-level areas mainly being cities with larger vegetable planting areas. (2) The indicators for achievement sharing, productivity, and element support have all increased by over 25%, while the green and low-carbon dimensions have increased by over 20%. The vegetable supply dimension has the smallest increase, but also exceeded 10%. (3) The overall regional gap during the research period showed “first increasing and then decreasing”, with some narrowing. The main source of the gap was the super variable density, followed by inter-regional gap, and then intra-regional gap. (4) The overall dynamic evolution of industrial development shows a positive trend, and the level transfer of development in the sample areas is stable. The probability of upward transfer in lower level cities is generally greater than that of downward transfer.【Conclusion】The vegetable industry in Guangdong is gradually moving towards high-quality development, and its regional differences and dynamic evolution show certain regular changes. It is recommended that multiple parties jointly build a provincial-level vegetable industry information platform and promote cold chain construction according to local conditions; intensify the breeding of vegetable varieties and focus on conducting research and promotion of green prevention and control technologies; differentiate and improve weak projects in different regions to enhance the high-quality development level of the vegetable industry. |
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