| 陈风波,张梨靖.热带气旋现象影响南方水稻产量的实证检验 ---基于广东省水稻种植户的调查研究[J].广东农业科学,2024,(9-10):- |
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热带气旋现象影响南方水稻产量的实证检验 ---基于广东省水稻种植户的调查研究 |
| The impact of Occurrence of Tropical Cyclones on Rice Output in Southern China: A Study Based on Survey Data of Rice Farmers in Guangdong |
| 投稿时间：2024-06-11 修订日期：2024-08-14 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 粮食安全 热带气旋灾害 Tobit模型 工具变量法 农户 |
| 英文关键词: Food Security Tropical Cyclone Disaster Tobit Model Instrumental Variable Method Farming Households |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金（20BGL183）；广东省农业农村厅“广东省现代农业产业体系水稻创新团队项目”（2023KJ105） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 【目的】本文旨在量化热带气旋灾害在水稻收获期造成的水稻倒伏而导致的水稻产量损失，深入认识热带气旋灾害对农户生计和粮食安全的影响，该研究可为减少热带气旋灾害对广东水稻产量的影响提供数据支撑，为提升热带气旋灾害的综合防范能力提供政策依据。【方法】运用2020-2022年广东省稻农的混合截面数据，利用Tobit模型和2SLS模型，基于农户地块数据，从微观层次估计热带气旋灾害对水稻产量的影响程度。【结果】基于广东微观农户地块层面的数据，通过分析热带气旋导致水稻倒伏的影响和水稻倒伏对水稻产量的影响两个过程分析，本文结果显示，热带气旋灾害在1%显著水平上导致水稻倒伏，即当热带气旋过境时，水稻倒伏的可能性也大大增加。从广东三年2020、2021和2022年农户调查数据来看，由热带气旋引起的倒伏率占全部倒伏率的22.9%，当地块水稻倒伏率每增加10%，水稻产量大约下降2.9%。热带气旋对同一地区不同农户及不同地块上的水稻倒伏及产量的影响存在差异，对沿海地区水稻生产的影响要强于内陆地区。【结论】广东热带气旋灾害导致水稻倒伏，进而对水稻产量产生显著影响，危及粮食安全。为减少热带气旋灾害对广东水稻产量的负面影响，本文有如下政策启示：进一步完善农田水利设施，加大高标准农田建设力度，保证因热带气旋导致的洪水能迅速排除；培育耐淹或抗倒伏的水稻品种；做好灾害性气候信息的传达，加强热带气旋灾害预警系统建设；进一步完善粮食生产保险政策，提高赔付标准和赔付力度。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| 【Objective】The study aims to quantify the impact of tropical cyclone disasters on rice lodging and subsequent yield losses during the harvest period. It seeks to understand the effects of tropical cyclone disasters on farmers' livelihoods and food security. The findings provide data support for mitigating the impact of tropical cyclones on rice yields in Guangdong and offer policy recommendations for enhancing comprehensive disaster prevention capabilities.【Method】Utilizing panel data from rice farmers in Guangdong Province from 2020 to 2022, this study employs Tobit and 2SLS models. By analyzing household plot-level data, the study estimates the impact of tropical cyclone disasters on rice yield at a micro level.【Result】Based on micro-level data from rice farmers in Guangdong, the study analyzes the impact of tropical cyclones on rice lodging and the subsequent effect on rice yield. Tobit model estimates indicate that tropical cyclone disasters significantly cause rice lodging at the 1% significance level, implying that the likelihood of rice lodging increases substantially when tropical cyclones occur. According to the survey data from 2020, 2021, and 2022, lodging caused by tropical cyclones accounts for 22.9% of the total lodging rate. For every 10% increase in plot-level rice lodging rate, rice yield decreases by approximately 2.9%. The impact of tropical cyclones on rice lodging and yield varies among different households and plots within the same region, with coastal areas being more severely affected than inland areas.【Conclusion】Tropical cyclones in Guangdong cause rice lodging, which significantly impacts rice yields and threatens food security. To mitigate the negative effects of tropical cyclones on rice production in Guangdong, the following policy recommendations are proposed: further improvement of farmland water conservancy infrastructure, including the expansion of high-standard farmland to ensure the rapid drainage of floodwaters caused by tropical cyclones; the development of flood-tolerant or lodging-resistant rice varieties; effective communication of hazardous climate information and the strengthening of tropical cyclone disaster early warning systems; and further enhancement of agricultural insurance policies for grain production, with increased compensation standards and payout levels. |
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