| 张婷,李书曼,伏开放,等.广东省粮食供应链风险评估实证分析及控制策略研究[J].广东农业科学,2024,(7-9):- |
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广东省粮食供应链风险评估实证分析及控制策略研究 |
| Empirical Analysis and Control Strategy of Grain Supply Chain Risk Assessment in Guangdong Province |
| 投稿时间：2023-12-30 修订日期：2024-03-10 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 粮食供应链风险评估 粮食供应链风险控制策略 熵权法-TOPSIS 灰色关联分析 |
| 英文关键词: grain supply chain risk assessment risk control strategy of grain supply chain entropy weight method-TOPSIS grey correlation analysis |
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| 摘要点击次数: 43 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 粮食供应链的稳定与高效运作是保障国家粮食安全的重要环节,本研究对广东省粮食供应链风险进行评估并提出控制策略。以国家统计局2003-2021年的数据为基础,采用SPSS进行因子分析,构建了包含广东省自然灾害受灾面积、突发环境事件次数、粮食类居民消费价格指数等12个指标的广东省粮食供应链风险评估指标体系。运用Stata进行熵权法-TOPSIS,对样本数据进行风险阶段变化分析,通过Python利用灰色关联法分析变化原因。实证分析结果显示,2003年以来广东省粮食供应链风险整体上呈下降趋势,外部风险较低,能够有效地保障粮食的外部供给,但粮食产量和储备不足,内部供给风险仍然较高,其中粮食产量、粮食企业抗风险能力、粮食类居民消费价格指数是影响粮食供应链风险的主要因素。政府部门和粮食企业可以考虑:改善粮食生产条件(如提高环境标准、优化水利设施等)以提高粮食生产效率和产量；根据消费者需求开发差异性产品(如绿色粮食产品),建立严格的质量管理体系以提高抗风险能力；加强粮食物流基础设施建设、推广先进的粮食运输方式和完善粮食储备系统以提高粮食流通效率、降低物流风险；拓宽粮食进口渠道,构建安全稳定的外部粮食供应系统。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The stability and efficient operation of grain supply chain is an important link to ensure national grain security. This study assessed the risk of grain supply chain in Guangdong Province and proposed control strategies. Based on the data of the National Bureau of Statistics from 2003 to 2021, SPSS was used to conduct factor analysis, and an indicator system for grain supply chain risk assessment in Guangdong Province was constructed, which included 12 indicators, such as the area affected by natural disasters, the number of environmental emergencies, and the consumer price index of grain. Stata was used to carry out entropy weight method -TOPSIS to analyze the risk stage changes of the sample data, and Python was used to analyze the reasons for the changes by grey correlation method. The empirical analysis results show that since 2003, the risk of grain supply chain in Guangdong Province has been declining on the whole, and the external risk is relatively low, which can effectively guarantee the external supply of grain. However, the internal supply risk is still high due to insufficient grain production and reserve. Grain output, the risk resistance ability of grain enterprises and the consumer price index of grain are the main factors affecting the risk of grain supply chain. Government departments and grain enterprises can consider: improving grain production conditions (such as improving environmental standards, optimizing water conservancy facilities, etc.) to improve grain production efficiency and output; developing differentiated products (such as green grain products) according to consumer needs, and establishing a strict quality management system to improve anti-risk ability; strengthening the construction of grain logistics infrastructure, promoting advanced grain transportation modes and improving grain reserve systems to improve grain circulation efficiency and reduce logistics risks; expanding grain import channels to build a secure and stable external grain supply system. |
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