| There are many reasons that effect the change of grain output.So,this article aims at empirically analysing the relationship between the grain output and these reasons in Gansu during 1978—2011, by using the mathods of cointegration analysis, Granger causality test and the impulse reponse function. The results show that the effective irrigation area, planting area, disaster area and chemicial fertilizer are the major effects to the grain output in Gansu. Among these, the contribution of the planting area to the Gansu grain output shows a marginal decline trend, the effective irrigation area and the grain output are the causal relationship to each other,which match the actual situation of dry and identical in Gansu. Finally, according to the results of analysis, we poin out the corresponding policy recommendations. |
