| This paper analyzes the relationship between prices of cabbage, pepper, cucumber and CPI by X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment model. Co-integration analysis proves that there is long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the prices of three kinds of staple vegetables and CPI. Granger causality test shows that CPI is essential in forecasting the three vegetable prices fluctuation both in short and long terms. And the prices of cabbage and cucumber are not significant in forecasting CPI in short term but significant in long term. To properly grasp the dynamics of China's vegetable prices and ensure the residents quality of life level, we should improve the vegetable price risk early warning system as soon as possible, perfect the information circulation channels and strengthen the vegetable infrastructure optimization. |
