| A modest rise of mutton price will stimulate the development of mutton industry, but a rapid rise of mutton price will damage the stability of mutton market. For policy makers, it is necessary to find early indicators of mutton price’s sharp rise, put forward reasonable and moderate regulation at the appropriate time. Therefore, this paper will provide
reference for the government to implement regulation by establishing a system of two TAR models. The sample interval of
mutton price time series is from June 1994 to February 2014, the TAR model estimation results show that the threshold of
mutton price index series is 4.678, and the corresponding price index is 107.57%; If the lamb price index is higher than
107.57%, mutton price volatility will increase, which will have a large impact on the mutton market, and the government
then needs to take measures timely; If the mutton price index is lower than 107.57%, the fluctuation of price index is
relatively stable, and the government don't have to take measures at this time. In addition, the government should fully
consider the time lag of the implementation effect of policy, in order to avoid promoting the mutton price volatility. |
