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| Predictive model of occurrence regularity of Proceras venosatum in sugarcane middle and later stage |
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| Abstract: |
| To study the occurrence regularity of Proceras venosatum and the influence factors and to establish the predictive model of Proceras venosatum爷s occurrence peak in sugarcane middle and later stages, we used stepwise regression method to analysis the relationship of the Proceras venosatum occurrence peak and the main climate factors or last occurrence peak. The result showed that all of effective accumulated temperature in late June, sunshine hours in early June and precipitation in late June have significant relationships with the second occurrence peak. The result also indicated that all of effective accumulated temperature in middle August, sunshine hours in later August and the second occurrence peak have significant relationships with the third occurrence peak. The degree fitting of the model with history data are about 93.8% and 90.3%, respectively. The degrees of accuracy are 92.2% and 95.3%, respectively. Therefore,the predictive model could be used to forecast the occurrence peak in middle and later stage of sugarcane production. |
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