| This paper studied an evaluation method for disease risk of pig industry in China. Making the relationship
between disease risk and the death of pigs, Monte Carlo simulation was used to expand sample size. Peak over threshold
approach based on the extreme value theory was used to fit the distribution of disease risk of pigs, and value at risk was
used to assess disease risk of pigs. The 95% confidence interval of the loss was calculated in the scenario of different level
of disease risk, a basic framework of the pig disease risk assessment was constructed. In the end, the advices of reducing
and controlling the disease risk has were put forwad. |
