| Analysis and prediction of the change of grain productivity has guiding significance to make cultivated land
protection and food security of policies. This is because the changes of cultivated land resource directly affects the grain yield. This paper predicted the impact of cultivated land change on regional grain productive capacity of China in the next 10 years by quantitative analysis and comparative analysis based on changes in quantity and quality of cropland. Results shows that differences do exist among the cultivated land gradation of each province, and the cultivated land area shows a tendency for further decreasing which mainly distributes in the economically developed eastern China with high-level cultivated land gradation and grain productive capacity; The statistics of cultivated land area were converted to standard area according to 1 and 15 grades by the conversion coefficient, the proportion between decreased and increased cultivated land area is 0.25：1 and the proportion between decreased and increased standard food yield is 3.07：1. The nonagricultural construction on higher quality cultivated land causes more loss of grain production, so the high quality cultivated land shouldn’t be occupied by construction and more attention should be paid to the requisition -compensation balance of cultivated land. The paper reveals the provincial and the national trends of cultivated land and its impact on grain production capacity, helps to identify the changes in pattern and situation of cultivated land resources in different areas and forecast the level of grain production. |
