| Based on the date of grain production, agricultural loans and agricultural financial expenditure in major
grain producing areas in 1979-2010，the cointegration test and VAR model were employed to analyze the impact of
agricultural loans and agricultural financial expenditure on grain production in major grain producing areas. The results
showed that, the current agricultural loans and agricultural financial expenditure both had significant positive effect on
grain production, and agricultural loans had greater impact compared to agricultural financial expenditure on grain
production in major grain producing areas. Variance decomposition results showed that the contribution of agricultural loans was greater than that of agricultural financial expenditure on grain production in main producing areas; on this basis, this paper proposed that we should modify Chinese agricultural financial and fiscal policies, for increasing food production and ensuring food security. |
