| An integrated prediction model is proposed based on time series model and RBF, forecasting the trend of agricultural products price, for the purpose of assisting producers in seeding and harvesting. The time series prediction model ARCH and Holt -Winters no season are weighted composited, featuring the linear characteristic of price series.While RBF is added afterward, featuring the nonlinearity characteristic. A test on monthly price series of soybean covering 1997 to 2011 is carried out. The result that the accuracy of the integrated forecasting model is higher than either combined time series model or RBF proves the effectiveness of this model. |
