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| Spatial-temporal correlation analysis of changerate of county farmland in Sichuan provincebased on ESDA and GIS |
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis
（ESDA），with the support of ArcGIS and GeoDa software，this study analyzed the change rate of farmland in the
periods of 2001-2007 and 2007-2013 in Sichuan province. The spatial correlation of change rate of farmland in
the two periods was studied. The results showed that：（1）From 2001 to 2013，the farmland in Sichuan province
sharply decreased at the beginning，and then slightly increased. From 2001 to 2007， the area of farmland decreased
37.6375×104 hm2，with an average annual of 6.2729×104 hm2；From 2007 to 2013， the area of farmland increased
1.8817×104 hm2，with an average annual of 0.3136×104 hm2.（2）The global Moran’s I were 0.4219 and 0.5428，
which indicated that there was significant positive spatial autocorrelation of change rate of farmland in the periods
of 2001-2007 and 2007-2013 in Sichuan province. The counties which had similar change rate of farmland were
collectively distributed in space，and it was increasingly obvious with time going on.（3）From local spatial autocor
relation cluster type，the majority of the two periods accounted for 75.41% and 73.77%，whereby，counties，which
presented distinct relativity，accounted for 26.81% and 16.30%， and this kind of trend would shift from west to
east；（4）Although the spatial cluster of the change rate of farmland in the two periods was different，there was
common between them. The change rates of farmland in the Panxi urban agglomeration of southwest Sichuan，
Chengdu Plains urban agglomeration and Northeast
Sichuan urban agglomeration which based in eastern
Sichuan were higher，the change rate of farmland in
the northwest Sichuan urban agglomeration of Sichuan
province was lower. |
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