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| Prediction model and change regularity of moistureof forest surface dead fuel in Beijing |
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| Abstract: |
| Taking the dead fuel moisture content of different tree species as the research object，we
researched the relationships between the fuel moisture of different types and weather conditions according to the
daily observation of fuel moisture content. The prediction model of fuel moisture content for different fuel type of
different species including Quercus variabilis， Q. aliena， Platycladus orientals and Pinus tabulaeformis was built
by using non-linear regression. The results showed that there were obvious differences in fuel moisture content of
different tree species and among different fuel types. Q. variabilis had higher dead fuel moisture content than other
species. The moisture content of dead leaves was generally higher than that of dead branches. Fuel moisture content
was negatively correlated with temperature and wind speed， and was positively correlated with relative humidity.
The established non-linear regression model could explain more than 30% of variance for fuel moisture content of
different species， and the prediction model performed well by the mean MRE and mean MRE test. Fuel moisture
content showed a trend of firstly increasing and then declining and lastly increasing during a day. Fuel moisture
content peaked at 7： 00-8： 00 pm， and reached the lowest value at 14： 00. During the period of fire prevention，
fuel moisture content was relatively high from December to February， while it was relatively low from March to May
and in November. |
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