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| Analysis on price volatility of Hainan vegetablesbased on HP filter model |
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| Abstract: |
| This paper used Hainan vegetables quarterly price index data from the first quarter of 2006 to the
third quarter of 2014，to analyze the main fluctuation features of Hainan vegetables price. After using X11 seasonal
adjustment model to exclude the impact of seasonal factors on the price fluctuations of vegetables，HP filter model was
used to analyze the fluctuant regularity in vegetables price，and divided short-term fluctuations of the cycle. The results
revealed that the fluctuation of Hainan vegetables price was low peak-average volatility and the capacity of rising in
price was limited. Judging from the depth of price fluctuation，solanaceous vegetables had the maximum average depth
with 27.69，indicating a strong capacity of price falling in solanaceous vegetables. Judging from the length of expansion
and contraction，leafy vegetables showed a trend of contraction，the upward tendency of melons vegetables price was
weaking，the expansion trend of solanaceous vegetables price was obvious，the price index of beans maintained stable.
This study found a steady rise in price of vegetables in Hainan within long-term trend，but in short-term，it had
volatility and ultimately. Finally，the countermeasures for stabilizing price of Hainan vegetables were proposed. |
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