|
| Analysis on fluctuation trend and temporal characteristicsof pig price in Guangdong based—CensusX12 and H-P model |
| |
| DOI： |
|
| Hits: 1459 |
| Download times: 525 |
| Abstract: |
| Taking the monthly data of pig price from January 2010 to December 2015 as the study object，this
paper used CensusX12 and H-P filter to split the pig price fluctuations into four parts，including seasonal fluctuations，
the long-term trend，cycle，and irregular fluctuations，analyzed the inherent law and characteristics of e pig price
fluctuations in Guangdong，and used the ratio of random component and actual price to measure the contribution degree
of external impact factors on pig price fluctuations. The results showed that the pig price in Guangdong during this time
fluctuated frequently and even swung in several years，its characteristics of seasonal fluctuations were significant，
and the annual variation laws were highly similar. The long-term trend of slow rising on pig prices was nonlinear，with
obvious cycle fluctuation characteristics，and a new cycle has already begun. What’s more，the impacts of external
random factors on pig price were bigger，and the contribution of random components to the price fluctuation of pig was
more than 5%. Finally，according to the results of empirical study，this paper put forward some policy proposals to
stabilize the pig market in Guangdong. |
|
View Full Text
View/Add Comment Download reader |
