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| Evaluation of cultivated land ecological security in Zhuhai city in recent 30 years and its future prediction |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2017.01.024 |
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| Abstract: |
| The evaluation of cultivated land ecological security is conducive to the sustainable utilization of
cultivated land resources and national food security. In order to understand the situation of cultivated land ecological
security in Zhuhai City，the evaluation index system based on PSR model was constructed. Entropy method was used
to determine the weight of every index，and then quantitatively analyzed Zhuhai ecological security of cultivated land
value in 1985-2014，the cultivated land ecological security level was divided into five grades such as insecurity，
less secure，criticality safety，relative safety，safety. In this paper，the grey system theory was introduced to predict
cultivated land ecological security level in Zhuhai City in 2015-2020，analyzes the driving factors were analyzed.
Results showed that，the Zhuhai ecological security of cultivated land comprehensive value showed a U-shaped curve
in 1985-2014，safety - experienced relative safety - critical safety - relative safety - critical safety - less safety -
critical safety - less safety - critical safety evolution. The cultivated land ecological security level was significantly
improved after 1999. Zhuhai ecological security of cultivated land comprehensive value assumed the trend of escalation in 2015-2020，security level from critical security development to relative safety，the future level of
ecological security of cultivated land was more optimistic. The contradiction between population nature and economic
development was still the key factor to influence the level of cultivated land ecological security. |
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