| Soil and water resources are the two major resources for agro-ecosystem, which influence its sustainable
developments.【Objective】The objective of this study is to explore the impact of changes and developments of Heilongjiang
agro-ecosystem on the utilization of water and soil resources.【Method】The crop water consumption and planting area
of Heilongjiang agro-ecosystem were evaluated and predicted under the current management level of agricultural science
and technology by using Logistic model and RMSE analysis model.【Result】The results showed that the K value of crop
total planting area in Heilongjiang agro-ecosystem is about 14.3 million hm2, and the K value of agricultural water supply
is about 316 million m3. The K value of rice per unit yield was about 7 030 kg/hm2, while the K value of grain crops per unit
yield was about 5 275 kg/hm2, and the K value of crop total yield capacity reached 75.32 million tons. Meanwhile, by using
this model, it can be seen from the fitting analysis on the simulated values and statistical values of the total amount of water resource irrigation, crop total planting area and crop per unit yield that the minimum and maximum values of the determination
coefficient (R2) were 0.89 and 0.98, respectively. Moreover, almost all the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were less than 10%,
with a highly significant correlation at the level of 0.01.【Conclusion】The Logistic model could simulate the utilization and
trend changes of soil and water resources in Heilongjiang agro-ecosystem accurately in past two decades. |
