| 【Objective】The objective of this study is to explore the land use types, quantitative evolution law and
spatial distribution of the Tibetan settlements in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River.【Method】The land use data in 3
years (1995, 2005, 2015) were used to simulate and predict the land use in 2025 in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River
by using CA-Markov model .【Result】 The results showed that: (1) During the period of 1995—2005, the woodland area
decreased significantly, but other land use increased. The dynamic degree of construction land showed a highest fluctuation
with the total area increased by 139.52 hm2, while the growth rates of construction land and bare land were 92.16% and
25.72%, respectively. (2) During the period of 2005—2015, only the construction land area increased tremendously, and
the dynamic degree of which showed a highest fluctuation with the total area increased by 1 943.03 hm2, while other land
area decreased and the dynamic degree changed little. (3) During the period of 2015—2025, the use of bare land and dry
land began to increase. While woodland and grassland had decreased by 1 735.45 hm2 and 1 367.14 hm2, respectively. The
decreasing parts of woodland and grassland were changed to construction land and bare land. (4) During the whole study
period, the proportion of different types of land in the study areas changed little, and the number of construction land, bare
land and dry land increased slightly. 【Conclusion】The simulation results were feasible, which could well reflect the dynamic change trend of land use in Tibetan settlements in the upper reaches of Minjiang River, and provide some guidance for
the optimal allocation of land resources in this area. |
