| 【Objective】Winter wheat is an important grain crop in Shanxi Province, and climate change has a significant impact on winter wheat yield. Model simulations are used to evaluate the impacts of climate changes on winter wheat yields in Shanxi Province, so as to provide an important scientific basis for winter wheat planting planning in Shanxi Province.【Method】The meteorological data of 2017-2018 and the winter wheat yield data at county level of 2018 in Shanxi Province were used. And DNDC model was applied to simulate and verify the winter wheat yields in Shanxi Province. Eight scenarios（including temperature increasing 1 or 2℃ , precipitation decreasing 20% or 10% and the coupling variation of temperature and precipitation）were further simulated to evaluate the possible influence of future climate changes on winter wheat yields.【Result】DNDC model showed good performance in simulating the overall level （4 335.6 kg/hm2） of winter wheat yield in Shanxi Province, with the average error of 4.63%, and the error was mainly attributed to terrain and climate differences. 【Conclusion】Under the 8 climate change scenarios, different temperature increases had different impacts on yields. Under the scenario of an average temperature increase of 1℃ , the yield of winter wheat in Shanxi Province decreased by 4.60%, while under the scenario of temperature increase of 2℃ , the yield increased by 16.44%; 10% and 20% decrease of precipitation had negative impacts on yields, indicating that water was still an important factor restricting the yields of winter wheat; while the coupling effect of temperature increase and precipitation decrease had positive effect on the yields, with the increase by 7.41%-15.84%. In the future, it is necessary to evaluate the impacts of climate changes on agriculture from the perspective of crop rotation. |
